Report Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of SHFE zinc 2507 closed at 21,845 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, up 0.14% week-on-week. The SHFE zinc market was volatile this week due to the mixed macro situation and the fundamentals of increasing supply and weakening demand in the off - season, with signs of inventory accumulation and weakening spot premiums [3]. - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, and Fed officials' differences became public. In June, the processing fees continued to rise, smelters were highly motivated to produce, and the output from newly - put - into - operation smelters and the resumption of some overhauled smelters are expected to lead to an increase in production in June, making the domestic supply gradually more relaxed. The zinc import window closed in June [3]. - This week, the downstream开工 was under pressure. The galvanizing开工 decreased, the orders for galvanized pipes were few, and the demand for galvanized structural parts weakened in the off - season. The开工 of die - casting zinc alloys decreased, and the demand weakened with a slower shipment rhythm. The开工 of zinc oxide remained flat with weakening orders, but some zinc oxide enterprises are expected to resume production next week, and the开工 may increase slightly [3]. - The domestic zinc ingot spot inventory increased, while the LME zinc inventory continued to decrease. With the Fed's stance, high production enthusiasm of smelters, expected increase in zinc ingot production, weakening demand in the off - season, and signs of inventory accumulation despite the low social inventory of zinc ingots, it is recommended to short SHFE zinc at high prices [3]. Summary by Directory 01 Price Data - The SHFE zinc market was volatile this week. The spread between SHFE zinc 07 - 08 contracts weakened week - on - week, and the LME zinc 0 - 3M backwardation changed little week - on - week. Due to weak downstream demand, the spot premium decreased [8][12][17]. 02 Fundamental Data - This week, the port inventory of zinc concentrates decreased by 0.1 million tons week - on - week, and the raw material inventory increased by 1.4 million tons [20]. - In June, the processing fees continued to rise, smelters were highly motivated to produce, and the production in June is expected to increase, making the domestic supply gradually more relaxed [23][24]. - In May, the net import of refined zinc was 2.53 million tons, with imports of 2.67 million tons and exports of 0.14 million tons [27]. - This week, the downstream开工 was under pressure. Traders replenished less inventory, the orders for galvanized pipes were few, and the demand for galvanized structural parts weakened in the off - season [28][31][35]. - The domestic zinc ingot spot inventory increased this week, the inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone decreased, and the LME zinc inventory continued to decrease [37][38]. - Last week, the new - home sales in 10 key cities increased week - on - week but decreased year - on - year, while the second - hand home sales increased both week - on - week and year - on - year [44][45]. - In June, the production plan of household air conditioners was 20.5 million units, a 11.5% increase compared to the actual performance of the same period last year; the production plan of refrigerators was 7.9 million units, a 3.6% increase; the production plan of washing machines was 6.75 million units, the same as the actual performance of the same period last year; from June 1 - 15, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in the national market increased by 38% year - on - year; and the domestic photovoltaic module production continued to decrease in June [49][51][54][59].
供给转松、需求走弱,锌锭有累库迹象
Guo Lian Qi Huo·2025-06-22 11:42