供需预期转淡，锂价承压下行

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: In June, domestic lithium salt production resumed growth, raw material consumption increased, lithium ore inventory decreased, and there was a strong willingness to support prices. However, subsequent arrivals of lithium ore may lead to a spiral decline in lithium salt prices. In July, smelters resumed production, and production reached a new high, further increasing supply pressure [5]. - Consumption side: Subsidies for trade - ins are expected to continue. The energy storage market is currently in a state of "rush to export", but the month - on - month increase is limited. In July, the demand off - season is expected to be obvious, with battery and cathode factories showing signs of destocking and purchasing remaining cautious [5]. - Cost side: Both mines and salt factories are reducing costs, the cost curve is constantly moving down, and the psychological support in the market is also decreasing [5]. - Price outlook: SMM's weekly inventory and production increased month - on - month, smelters accumulated inventory, and downstream destocked. Downstream orders are expected to decline in the off - season, and downstream will maintain a destocking strategy with a high proportion of customer - supplied materials. Spot purchases will remain for just - in - time needs. As some smelters still have profits at current prices and supply resumes growth, inventory is expected to increase rapidly in July, and lithium carbonate prices will be under downward pressure [5]. - Strategy recommendations: For single - side trading, expect lithium carbonate prices to decline; for arbitrage, temporarily wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money call options [5]. Summary by Directory Demand Analysis 1.1.1 New Energy Vehicles - Slowing Domestic Sales Momentum - From January to May, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 5.699 million and 5.608 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 45.2% and 44%. The new energy vehicle sales accounted for 44% of the total vehicle sales. From June 1 - 15, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market were 402,000, a year - on - year increase of 38% and a month - on - month increase of 0%. The retail penetration rate of the new energy market was 57%, and the cumulative retail sales since the beginning of the year were 4.76 million, a year - on - year increase of 35% [12]. - In June, the growth of new energy vehicles slowed down. On one hand, some cities exhausted subsidies for trade - ins, and there was a time lag in issuing new subsidies. On the other hand, the penetration rate exceeded 50%, limiting the growth space. The Passenger Car Association predicts that the annual wholesale volume of new energy passenger cars will be 15.73 million, a year - on - year increase of 29%, with a penetration rate of 56% [12]. - The peak - season characteristics of power cell production are not obvious. From January to May, the production is expected to increase by 54% year - on - year to 458.6 GWh, and the month - on - month increase in May was only about 2% [12]. 1.1.2 New Energy Vehicles - Slowing Electrification Process in Europe and the United States - From January to April 2025, the cumulative global new energy vehicle sales increased by 33.9% year - on - year to 5.97 million, compared with a 26.7% year - on - year increase in the same period last year. In the United States, the cumulative sales increased by 6.7% year - on - year to 523,000, compared with a 10.1% increase in the same period last year. In Europe, the cumulative sales increased by 24.6% year - on - year to 1.118 million, compared with an 11.3% increase in the same period last year. China's new energy vehicle exports increased by 52% year - on - year to 639,000, compared with a 21% increase in the same period last year [18]. - The EU's carbon emissions review has been postponed for two years, and the United States plans to cancel IRA subsidies [18]. 1.2 Energy Storage Market - "Rush to Export" Maintains Orders but with Limited Increment - In the northwestern region of China, there is an oversupply of thermal power, the peak - valley electricity price difference has decreased significantly compared with 2023, the demand for wind, solar power, and energy storage has declined, and electricity prices are expected to fall [23]. - The marginal effect of the second round of "rush to export" is diminishing, and the month - on - month increase is relatively limited. The US plan to cancel IRA subsidies has a significant impact on local energy storage project construction [23]. - SMM expects the cumulative production of Chinese energy storage cells from January to May to be 166.7 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 67%, compared with a 42% increase in the same period last year [23]. 1.3 Battery and Cathode Production Scheduled in June Remained Flat Month - on - Month - SMM's production schedule for June: Lithium iron phosphate production is expected to increase by 2% month - on - month, while ternary cathode material production is expected to decrease by 1.2% month - on - month [26]. - From January to May, the cumulative production of power and energy storage cells increased by 57% year - on - year to 625.33 GWh [26]. - The spot market has difficulty in shipping. Due to smelter production cuts and reduced shipments, the basis is strong, but the downstream customer - supplied proportion is high, the receiving capacity is limited, and trading is light [26]. Supply Analysis 2.1 Weekly Lithium Carbonate Production Increased - This week's rebound in lithium carbonate prices stimulated the continuous growth of weekly production. As smelters gradually resumed production in June, monthly production is expected to reach a new high. SMM expects June's lithium carbonate production to increase by 9% month - on - month to 78,800 tons [30]. - In May, the supply of lithium ore gradually became abundant, and lithium ore prices declined. It is expected that arrivals in June will continue to increase, and lithium ore prices still have room to fall [30]. - Due to the increase in recovery rate and the decrease in processing fees, the cost of converting the same ore price into lithium salt is lower than the same period last year [30]. 2.2 China's Monthly Lithium Carbonate Production by Raw Material - Not further elaborated on specific data trends in the given content, only the charts of production by different raw materials (salt lake, lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and recycling) are provided [32] 2.3 Supply Pressure of Lithium Carbonate Still Existed in June and Increased Further in July - In May 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports were 21,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. From January to May 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports were 100,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.3% [42]. - Currently, Chile exports lithium carbonate and lithium sulfate to China, which diverts part of the lithium carbonate import volume. Although the apparent import volume of lithium carbonate has decreased, the supply of lithium elements still exerts significant pressure [42]. 2.4 Lithium Carbonate Supply - Demand Dynamics Turned to Surplus - Not further elaborated on specific surplus data and analysis in the given content, only the chart of lithium carbonate supply - demand balance is provided [44] 2.5 Lithium Carbonate Inventory Continued to Accumulate - Lithium carbonate inventory continued to accumulate this week. As demand enters the off - season, downstream purchases cautiously and actively destocks. Spot demand remains low, and the phenomenon of "buying on dips" persists [48]. - Since the current term structure does not provide delivery profits, spot - futures traders only choose to deliver when they cannot sell their spot goods, so the warehouse receipts may remain at a low level [48]. - Spot feedback indicates that inventory at all links in the industrial chain is not low, and it is difficult for upstream to sell goods. Inventory is expected to continue to increase, presenting an opportunity for reverse arbitrage [48].