华联期货PVC周报：供需延续弱势，主要关注外围影响-20250622

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost - side calcium carbide prices are weak, while ethylene prices show a slight rebound, but overall, the valuation drive remains insufficient. Recently, the strong performance of crude oil due to geopolitical factors has provided some stimulation to the market. The supply - demand situation of PVC continues to be weak, and attention should be mainly paid to external influences [5]. - Operationally, aggressive investors can take a small - scale long position. For the 2509 contract, the support level can be referred to as 4780, and investors can buy and hold put options for protection [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Periodic and Spot Market - Last week, the negative value of the PVC 1 - 5 spread narrowed and was higher year - on - year. The 5 - 9 spread remained stable month - on - month and was lower year - on - year. The overall futures monthly spread structure still maintained a contango pattern with higher prices in the distant future, indicating that expectations are stronger than the current situation [12]. - The 9 - 1 spread was weakly stable last week and was higher year - on - year. The basis of the main contract remained stable month - on - month and was higher year - on - year [15]. 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1 PVC Capacity and Output - As of now, the effective PVC production capacity is 28 million tons, with the second - phase 300,000 - ton/year new capacity of Shaanxi Jintai. Last week, the PVC output was 462,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8% and a year - on - year increase of 0.33%, mainly due to the maintenance of Henan Yuhang and Xinjiang Zhongtai Huatai plants [19]. 3.2.2 Calcium Carbide Method Capacity and Output - As of now, the effective calcium carbide - based PVC production capacity is 20.33 million tons, accounting for about 72.6%. Last week, the output was 343,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.63% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.72% [22]. 3.2.3 Ethylene Method Capacity and Output - As of now, the effective ethylene - based PVC production capacity is 7.67 million tons, accounting for about 27.4%. Last week, the output was 118,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.71% and a year - on - year increase of 3.48% [25]. 3.2.4 PVC Start - up and Maintenance - Last week, the upstream PVC start - up rate was 78.62%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.7 percentage points, at a neutral level in the same period. The maintenance loss was 125,700 tons [28]. - Last week, the start - up rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 80.43%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.34 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.53 percentage points, at a high level in the same period. The start - up rate of ethylene - based PVC was 73.81%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.22 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 2.48 percentage points, at a relatively low level in the same period [32]. 3.2.5 PVC and Product Imports - From January to April 2025, the cumulative PVC import volume was 85,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.52%. From January to April, the import volume of plastics and their products in China was 6.8615 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.11% [37]. 3.3 Demand Side 3.3.1 Apparent Consumption and Production - Sales Ratio - From January to April 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption of PVC was 6.7463 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.33%. Last week, the PVC production - sales ratio was 140%, a month - on - month increase of 3 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2 percentage points [42]. 3.3.2 Downstream Start - up Rate - The start - up rate of downstream products was generally weak. Affected by the traditional rainy - season off - season, the start - up of pipe and profile enterprises continued to decline, and the real estate at the macro level still dragged down the terminal demand [45]. 3.3.3 Exports - From January to April 2025, the cumulative export volume of Chinese PVC was 1.3365 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 54.27%, with an obvious export - grabbing effect. PVC powder was mainly exported to India, Vietnam, Uzbekistan, etc., and the proportion of exports to India was 43.9% [52]. - From January to April 2025, the cumulative export volume of Chinese PVC floor covering materials was 141.8 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.67%. They were mainly exported to Europe and the United States. Among them, the proportion of exports to the United States was 27.6%, Canada 9.4%, Germany 5.6%, Australia 3.6%, and the Netherlands 3.5%. Against the background of the tariff war, the export of products to the United States is expected to continue to shrink [54]. 3.3.4 Real Estate and Infrastructure - From a macro perspective, PVC is a commodity with a post - cycle demand in the real estate industry, and its downstream demand is closely related to the real estate industry. From January to May 2025, the national real estate development investment decreased by 10.7% year - on - year, the floor area under construction decreased by 9.2% year - on - year, the new construction area decreased by 22.8%, the completed area decreased by 17.3%, and the sales area of newly - built commercial housing decreased by 2.9% year - on - year. The real estate market generally performed stably, and local policy optimization mainly focused on optimizing the provident fund policy. In the first half of June, driven by improved supply and real - estate enterprise promotions, the new - home market in key cities continued to recover, but the differentiation between cities and between new and old projects would still continue, and policy support was still needed to stop the market decline and promote stability [57]. - In terms of infrastructure, in May, the full - caliber and narrow - caliber (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water) infrastructure investment growth rates were 9.2% and 5.1% respectively, down 0.3 and 0.1 percentage points from January to March. As constraints are expected to be further alleviated, infrastructure investment may maintain high - speed growth [57]. 3.4 Inventory - Last week, the domestic PVC social inventory (21 companies) was 355,100 tons, remaining the same month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 41.19%. The PVC social inventory (41 companies) was 569,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.75% and a year - on - year decrease of 38%. Downstream enterprises replenished inventory at low prices, and export deliveries increased [59]. - The enterprise inventory was 401,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.29% and a year - on - year increase of 25.23%. The number of registered warehouse receipts continued to increase [64]. 3.5 Valuation 3.5.1 Blue Coke and Calcium Carbide - Last week, the blue - coke price remained stable and was lower year - on - year. The calcium carbide price was weakly stable, with the mainstream price in Wuhai area reported at 2,350 yuan/ton. The power cost decreased, and the decline in the start - up rate of calcium carbide enterprises was less than expected [68]. 3.5.2 Ethylene and Vinyl Chloride - Last week, the ethylene price rebounded month - on - month and was slightly lower year - on - year. The domestic and imported ethylene supplies were relatively tight, and the sharp increase in ethane and crude oil pushed up costs. The vinyl chloride price remained stable month - on - month and was lower year - on - year [71]. 3.5.3 Liquid Caustic Soda and Liquid Chlorine - Last week, the price of liquid caustic soda decreased month - on - month and was higher year - on - year. The price of liquid chlorine decreased month - on - month and was weaker year - on - year [74]. 3.5.4 PVC Profit - Last week, the loss of externally - purchased calcium carbide - based PVC narrowed slightly month - on - month but was still at the highest loss level in the same period over the years; the loss of ethylene - based PVC widened again month - on - month and was also at the weakest level in the same period [77]. 3.5.5 Chlor - Alkali Profit - Last week, the production profit of Shandong chlor - alkali decreased month - on - month and was higher year - on - year [81].