美生柴政策利好影响还未消退，油脂短期或震荡偏强

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of strong crude oil and favorable US biodiesel policies, the short - term trend of oils and fats may be oscillating and bullish [6]. - The rainfall in the Midwest soybean - growing areas in the next half - month is not conducive to soybean growth; in June, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased slightly while exports increased significantly, which is positive for palm oil; the domestic rapeseed oil inventory is still at a historically high level, and the future import volume may gradually decrease, and the China - Canada trade relationship needs to be monitored. The proposed increase in the US biodiesel blending volume in 2026 is positive for US soybean oil, and domestic palm oil may follow the upward trend, but there may be uncertainties [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Strategy Views and Outlook - Unilateral: It is recommended that the resistance level of palm oil 09 be around 7,800. For options, it is advisable to wait and see. - Arbitrage: It is advisable to wait and see. - Outlook: Attention should be paid to the US biodiesel policy, the production and export of Southeast Asian palm oil, China's policy on importing Canadian rapeseed, and the price of crude oil. Overall, oils and fats may be oscillating and bullish [9]. 2. Industrial Chain Structure - Periodic and Spot Markets - Last week, oils and fats were oscillating and bullish, mainly due to the rise in crude oil prices and favorable US biodiesel policies [18]. - The spread between soybean oil and palm oil, rapeseed oil and palm oil, and rapeseed oil and soybean oil is fluctuating widely. It is recommended to wait and see [21]. 3. Supply Side - Malaysian palm oil: In May, the production of Malaysian crude palm oil was 1.77 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.05%; imports were 69,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.32%; exports were 1.3872 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.62%; the ending inventory was 1.99 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.65%. The report was generally bearish [34]. - Domestic soybean and soybean oil: As of June 13, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 847,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 34,300 tons, or 4.22%, and a year - on - year decrease of 90,600 tons, or 9.66% [65]. - Domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil: As of June 13, 2025, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills was 174,000 tons, a decrease of 28,000 tons from the previous week; the rapeseed oil inventory was 129,300 tons, a decrease of 13,700 tons from the previous week; the unfulfilled contracts were 81,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from the previous week [68]. - Domestic palm oil: As of June 13, 2025 (week 24), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 409,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 37,000 tons, or 9.93%, and a year - on - year increase of 42,000 tons, or 11.41% [65]. 4. Demand Side - The document provides charts of the trading volumes of domestic soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, and the three major oils and fats over the years, but no specific analysis is given [56][60][62]. 5. Inventory - As of June 13, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 847,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 34,300 tons, or 4.22%, and a year - on - year decrease of 90,600 tons, or 9.66%. The commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 409,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 37,000 tons, or 9.93%, and a year - on - year increase of 42,000 tons, or 11.41%. The rapeseed oil inventory of major coastal oil mills was 129,300 tons, a decrease of 13,700 tons from the previous week [65][68]. 6. Disk Import Profit - As of June 20, 2025, the disk import profit of 24 - degree palm oil for the July shipment was - 194 yuan/ton [73].