有色金属行业周报：铜铝库存均现低位，金属价格中枢有望抬升-20250622

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][72]. Core Views - Precious Metals - Gold: Geopolitical issues abroad are escalating, and gold is expected to maintain a strong trend. As of June 20, the COMEX gold futures contract fell by 1.98% to $3,384.4 per ounce. The SPDR Gold ETF increased by 1.0% to 950.2 tons. The Federal Reserve kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% in June, aligning with market expectations. Short-term fluctuations in gold prices are anticipated due to U.S. policies, trade negotiations, and geopolitical uncertainties, but the demand for safe-haven assets will continue to support gold prices. In the medium to long term, macroeconomic uncertainties abroad will amplify gold's safe-haven attributes, and the weakening of the dollar's credibility is becoming increasingly evident, leading to a positive outlook for gold in the long term [3][6]. - Industrial Metals: Both copper and aluminum inventories are at low levels, and price centers are expected to rise. As of June 20, the LME copper futures contract rose by 0.1% to $9,660.5 per ton. Domestic copper social inventory reached 145,900 tons as of June 19, with a slight increase of 100 tons. LME copper inventory stood at 99,200 tons, nearing historical lows. Despite being in the traditional off-season for downstream demand, the accumulation of inventory has been slow since June. Global visible inventory has further decreased since May, and the available days of global electrolytic copper continue to decline. Supply tightness is expected to become more pronounced, and the macroeconomic environment suggests that copper prices may gradually rise [4][5]. - Aluminum: As of June 20, the LME aluminum futures contract increased by 2.3% to $2,561.5 per ton. Domestic aluminum social inventory reached 449,000 tons as of June 19, with a decrease of 11,000 tons. LME aluminum inventory continued to decline, and global electrolytic aluminum inventory levels are decreasing. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity remains high, with no immediate expectations for new projects. The rising aluminum water ratio may significantly impact the electrolytic aluminum spot market, leading to a downward trend in aluminum ingot inventory. In the medium term, the supply-demand gap is expected to widen, supporting a positive outlook for aluminum prices [5][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Nonferrous Metal Index Trends - As of June 20, 2025, the nonferrous metal index closed at 5,262.3 points, down 3.0% from the previous period. The precious metal index closed at 18,255.64 points, down 5.3%, while the industrial metal index closed at 1,925.73 points, down 3.2%. The energy metal index closed at 1,521.54 points, down 2.9%. During the same period, the CSI 300 index fell by 0.45% [9]. 2. Precious Metals - Gold is expected to maintain a strong trend due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and macroeconomic factors [3][6]. 3. Industrial Metals - Copper and aluminum inventories are low, with expectations for price increases due to supply-demand dynamics [4][5][6]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on gold, copper, and aluminum sectors. For gold, the recommendation is to pay attention to Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining. For copper, the focus is on Zijin Mining. For aluminum, the recommendation is to consider Tianshan Aluminum [6][70].