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地产行业周报:持续看好库存优、拿地及产品力强房企,现金流及分红稳定物企配置价值凸显-20250622
Ping An Securities·2025-06-22 12:02

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][29] Core Viewpoints - The short-term performance of the sector may remain volatile, with a weekly decline of 1.69%, underperforming the CSI 300 index which fell by 0.45%. The current divergence in the market is attributed to the mainstream A-share real estate stocks nearing their September 2024 lows, combined with a weakening housing market in April and May, and rising policy expectations following recent government meetings. There is a potential trading opportunity in the mid-term despite the lack of confidence in market stabilization due to weak income and housing price expectations [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on real estate companies with strong inventory structures, land acquisition capabilities, and product strength. It is believed that despite fluctuations in the housing market recovery, the trend of "core areas and good properties" stabilizing first remains unchanged. Companies with favorable inventory structures and strong product capabilities are expected to benefit from the stabilization of the segmented market [3] - The value of property management companies with stable cash flow and dividends is becoming increasingly prominent. Despite ongoing adjustments in the real estate sector, mainstream property management companies are showing strong cash flow and profit performance. The projected net profit growth for five major property management companies in 2024 is 17.8%, with an average dividend yield of 3.8%, making them attractive in a low-interest-rate environment [3] Summary by Sections Market Performance Monitoring - New home transactions in 50 key cities reached 19,000 units, a week-on-week increase of 6.7%. However, the average daily transaction volume for new homes in June (up to the 20th) decreased by 31.1% year-on-year and 3.9% month-on-month [7] - The inventory of 16 cities slightly increased, with a depletion cycle of 18.5 months. As of June 20, the inventory was 91.66 million square meters, reflecting a 0.03% increase [11] Capital Market Monitoring - The real estate sector saw a weekly decline of 1.69%, underperforming the CSI 300 index. The current price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the real estate sector is 38.43 times, which is at the 93.67 percentile of the past five years [20][22] - The issuance of real estate bonds this week was 5.59 billion yuan, with a net financing amount of -3.77 billion yuan, indicating a decrease in net financing [17] Policy Environment Monitoring - Xi'an has released measures to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, while Changsha has implemented detailed policies for housing provident fund loans for families with two or three children [5]