地缘波折，难阻中国科技突围

Group 1 - The global capital markets demonstrated unexpected resilience despite geopolitical tensions and hawkish policies from the Federal Reserve, with major Asian markets, including South Korea, India, and Japan, showing significant gains of 4.4%, 1.59%, and 1.50% respectively [3][4][14] - The Chinese market experienced a slight decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping 0.51% after failing to break through the critical resistance level of 3400 points, indicating a need for technical correction [3][14][16] - Structural risks in the Chinese market were highlighted, as small-cap stocks showed signs of weakening momentum, with the CSI 1000 Index down 1.74% and the Northern Stock Exchange 50 Index down 2.55% [3][14][16] Group 2 - The core logic supporting global market resilience is the belief that the Middle East geopolitical crisis will not escalate uncontrollably in the short term, with OPEC+ maintaining sufficient spare capacity and the long-term trend of global energy transition mitigating sustained oil price surges [4][14][15] - A differentiated outlook suggests that the Chinese market may outperform global markets in the coming week, as recent technical corrections have preemptively absorbed some risks, allowing for a potential rebound if geopolitical tensions ease [5][16] - The report maintains a positive outlook on the technology sector in the Chinese market, bolstered by supportive policy signals from the recent Lujiazui Forum, which emphasized long-term capital support for technology [6][17] Group 3 - Key investment themes include a focus on technology growth driven by US-China tech competition and new economic transformation, with specific attention to sectors such as robotics, artificial intelligence, autonomous driving, innovative pharmaceuticals, and military technology [7][20] - High dividend stocks are recommended for stable allocation, particularly in sectors like banking, electricity, and home appliances, as the trend of declining risk-free interest rates continues to create demand [7][20] - Cyclical commodities with constrained supply and improving demand are also highlighted, particularly in the rare earth and chemical sectors, which are expected to show resilience [7][21]