煤炭开采行业周报：供给收缩、需求回升，煤价阶段性底部或已出现-20250622

Investment Rating - The coal mining industry is rated as "Accumulate" [6] Core Viewpoints - Supply contraction and demand recovery suggest that a temporary bottom in coal prices may have been reached [1] - The average coal price at Qinhuangdao port remains stable, while overseas oil and gas prices have increased [2] - The average daily pig iron output has risen, while the outflow from the Three Gorges has decreased [3] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand - In May, national thermal power generation was 461.5 billion kWh, up 1.69% year-on-year, ending a trend of lower output compared to the previous year [1] - The average daily pig iron output was 2.4225 million tons, up 0.3% week-on-week and 0.9% year-on-year [3] - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines has been declining and is now significantly lower than the same period last year [1] Price Trends - The average price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 609 CNY/ton, unchanged week-on-week [2] - The average price of mixed thermal coal in Yulin, Shaanxi, was 470 CNY/ton, also unchanged week-on-week [2] - The FOB price of thermal coal in Newcastle, Australia, was 66 USD/ton, down 0.68% week-on-week [2] Inventory Tracking - As of June 20, coal inventory at Qinhuangdao port was 5.78 million tons, down 6.47% week-on-week and 2.20% year-on-year [4] - The inventory at independent coking plants was 6.6565 million tons, down 0.58% week-on-week [4] - The average operating rate of 110 sample washing plants was 61.3%, up 4.0 percentage points week-on-week [3] Investment Recommendations - With the summer peak electricity demand approaching, and in the context of supply contraction and seasonal demand increase, it is recommended to invest in companies with high long-term contract ratios and stable profits, such as China Shenhua and China Coal Energy [4]