地方债周度跟踪：减国债利差整体收窄，下周发行将明显提速-20250622

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds increased this period, and it is expected that both will rise significantly next period. As of June 20, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special bonds accounted for 48.5% and 38.4% of the annual quota respectively, and considering the expected issuance next period, it will be 54.9% and 47.7%. The current local government bonds still have certain allocation and trading value [4][6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 This Period: Local Government Bond Issuance Increased, and the Weighted Issuance Term Shortened - This period (June 16 - June 22, 2025), local government bonds issued a total of 261.753 billion yuan/net financing of 124.266 billion yuan (last period was 107.786 billion yuan/-43.012 billion yuan), and next period (June 23 - June 29, 2025) is expected to issue/have net financing of 585.648 billion yuan/504.4 billion yuan. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds this period was 10.86 years, shorter than 13.35 years of the last period [4]. - As of June 20, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 48.5% and 38.4% of the annual quota respectively, and considering the expected issuance next period, it will be 54.9% and 47.7%. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 42.5%/33.4% and 42.9%/36.6% respectively, and in 2023 it was 56.1%/52.2% and 57.3%/54.2% respectively [6]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds from July - September 2025 is 218.34 billion yuan in total, among which new special bonds are 121.85 billion yuan. As of June 20, 2025, 24 regions have disclosed the planned issuance scale of local government bonds from July - September 2025, with a total of 218.34 billion yuan (July - September are 103.69 billion yuan, 64.23 billion yuan, and 50.43 billion yuan respectively), among which new special bonds are 121.85 billion yuan [6]. - This period, 2.75 billion yuan of special new special bonds were issued, and 5.27 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds for replacing implicit debts were issued. As of June 20, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds was 27.3 billion yuan (2.75 billion yuan issued this period); the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing implicit debts was 173.62 billion yuan (5.27 billion yuan issued this period), with an issuance progress of 86.8%, among which 22 regions including Zhejiang have completed all issuances (Shaanxi was newly added this period) [6]. 3.2 This Period: The Spreads between 10Y and 30Y Local Government Bonds and Treasury Bonds Narrowed, and the Weekly Turnover Rate Declined - As of June 20, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds were 15.04BP and 19.24BP respectively, narrowing by 4.21BP and 3.91BP compared to June 13, 2025 (19.25BP and 23.15BP respectively on June 13, 2025), and were at the 20.1% and 73.9% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively [6]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds this period was 1.10%, a decline compared to 1.15% of the last period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Inner Mongolia, Guizhou, and Yunnan were better than the national average [6]. - Currently, local government bonds still have certain allocation and trading value. Taking 10 - year local government bonds as an observation anchor, since 2018, the top of the spread adjustment may be about 20 - 25BP higher than the issuance spread lower limit, and the bottom may be near the issuance spread lower limit. Currently, the top of the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP, and the bottom may be around 5 - 10BP [6].