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《关于分红险分红水平监管意见的函》点评:分红水平监管迎新规,建议重视负债成本管控成效
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-06-22 12:14

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [5]. Core Insights - The new regulations on dividend insurance aim to enhance sustainable operating levels while controlling liability costs, with specific guidelines for determining dividend levels based on asset allocation and investment returns [3][4]. - The focus on managing liability costs is crucial for mitigating interest spread loss risks, with the expected adjustment of the predetermined interest rate in Q3 2025 [5]. - The competitive landscape in the life insurance market remains intense, with customer return performance being a key factor influencing product selection [4]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Changes - New regulations on dividend insurance were issued on June 18, 2025, emphasizing sustainable dividend levels and dynamic management mechanisms [3]. - Insurers must justify the necessity and sustainability of proposed dividend levels under certain conditions, including historical performance metrics [3]. Market Dynamics - The core objective of transforming dividend insurance is to meet customer savings needs while reducing rigid liability costs [4]. - Major insurers have successfully increased sales of dividend insurance products, with significant contributions from individual and bank insurance channels [4]. Financial Projections - The expected predetermined interest rate for life insurance products is projected to decrease to 2.13% in Q1 2025, which is lower than the current rate of 2.5% [5]. - The insurance sector is expected to attract more attention post the implementation of new public fund regulations, with a notable underweight position compared to the market index [5]. Company Valuations - Key companies in the insurance sector have varying valuations, with China Life Insurance having a market cap of 96.34 billion RMB and a PEV of 0.74 for 2025 [9].