Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests taking profit on long positions on rallies in the first three trading days of the week due to the daily increase in the number of warehouse receipts and the less - than - expected destocking at ports. On Thursday, it recommends going long on pullbacks as the supply - demand outlook for pure benzene in July tightens and the probability of an escalation in the situation among the US, Israel, and Iran increases [2]. - According to the expected changes in oil prices and BZN, the valuation range of EB2508 is revised up to 7400 - 8150 yuan. It is recommended to hold long positions and go long on pullbacks [3]. Summary by Directory 01 Pure Benzene Logic - Domestic and Asian Device Maintenance: In China, many domestic pure benzene - related devices have maintenance plans or actual maintenance situations. The total domestic maintenance loss in June is 17.69 million tons, and in July it is 17.10 million tons. In Asia, many foreign devices also have maintenance plans, with a total maintenance loss of 23.27 million tons in June and 11.01 million tons in July [10][11]. - Overseas Aromatic Hydrocarbon Supply - Demand Changes: From May to June in the US, the total pure benzene imports were only 3 - 4 million tons, and the inventory of pure benzene traders and downstream raw materials in the US Gulf ports decreased significantly. In Europe, multiple phenol plants announced permanent closures this year [12]. - Production and Profit: The weekly production profit of petroleum benzene increased by 100 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rate was 80.36% (+0.96). The weekly production profit of hydro - benzene decreased by about 97 yuan/ton, and the operating rate was 67.87% (+0.77). The import profit of domestic pure benzene decreased by 49.86 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the far - month import window closed [15][18]. - Crude Oil and Related Inventory: In the week of June 13, EIA crude oil inventories decreased by 11.473 million barrels, Cushing crude oil decreased by 995,000 barrels, and SPR replenished by 230,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate dropped to 93.2% [22]. - Downstream Product Conditions: In the phenol sector, some plants increased their loads; in the caprolactam sector, the profit improved significantly and there was still room for restocking; in the aniline and adipic acid sectors, some plants had start - up and shutdown situations, and the profit of adipic acid increased slightly [27][29]. - Inventory and Consumption: As of June 16, the pure benzene inventory in East China ports was 153,000 tons (+4000), and the提货 volume decreased significantly. The five major downstream industries' total consumption of pure benzene increased by about 27,300 tons. After revising up the caprolactam operating rate forecast, the pure benzene supply - demand in July turned back to a tight balance [31][35]. 02 Styrene Logic - Device Maintenance: Domestically, Baolai's 350,000 - ton device entered maintenance, and some other devices restarted or postponed maintenance. Overseas, some devices restarted or had restart failures, and some were shut down due to raw material problems. The total domestic maintenance loss in June was 106,600 tons, and in July it was 50,500 tons [41][42]. - Production and Profit: This week, the domestic styrene production was 361,900 tons (+23,800), and the capacity utilization rate was about 79.01% (+5.2). The average weekly integrated profit of styrene increased by about 91 yuan/ton, the profit of PO/SM plants increased by about 29 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the average weekly profit of non - integrated plants decreased by about 25 yuan/ton [43][47]. - Inventory and Trade: This week, the styrene inventory in sample enterprises' factories was about 188,800 tons (+4100), and the inventory in East China ports was 66,300 tons (-13,700). The import profit of styrene decreased by 34.79 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the far - month import window closed. The export of styrene in June is expected to be 21,000 tons, a decrease from the previous month [55][58]. - Supply and Demand: This week, the total consumption of styrene by the three S products decreased by about 2400 tons. In the short term, the supply of styrene increased while the demand decreased, but the accumulation of factory and port inventories was small [61]. 03 Downstream Products & Terminal Industry Logic - EPS: The average weekly external procurement profit was - 4 yuan/ton, the production was about 88,900 tons (-3000), the capacity utilization rate was about 53.63% (-1.84), and the inventory in sample enterprises' factories was about 27,700 tons (-2400). The mainstream price increased by 260 yuan/ton week - on - week (+3%) [67][82]. - ABS: The external procurement profit increased by about 18.33 yuan/ton week - on - week, the production was about 119,800 tons (-200), the capacity utilization rate was about 63.97% (-0.11), and the inventory in sample enterprises' factories was about 209,000 tons (-9000). The average price increased by 78.33 yuan/ton week - on - week (+0.72%) [73][82]. - PS: The average weekly external procurement profit decreased by 53 yuan/ton, remaining in a loss state. The production was about 89,900 tons (+600), the capacity utilization rate was about 58.7% (+0.4), and the inventory in sample enterprises' factories was about 102,000 tons (+6000). The average price of GPPS increased by 215 yuan/ton week - on - week (+2.69%) [77][82]. - Terminal Industry: From January to May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year increase in automobile sales was 1.2314 million vehicles (+12.61%), and the cumulative year - on - year increase in exports was 319,400 vehicles (+15.2%). In May, the production of air conditioners decreased by 1.353 million units month - on - month but increased by 430,000 units year - on - year; the production of color TVs decreased by 310,000 units month - on - month and 1.193 million units year - on - year; the production of refrigerators increased by 331,000 units month - on - month but decreased by 422,000 units year - on - year [86]. 04 Pure Benzene, Styrene Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Pure Benzene: The supply - demand balance sheet shows changes in pure benzene production, import, and downstream consumption demand from January to December 2025. After adjustment, the supply - demand in July turned to a tight balance [104]. - Styrene: The supply - demand balance sheet shows changes in styrene production, net import, and downstream demand from January to December 2025, as well as inventory changes and forecasts [108].
国联期货纯苯苯乙烯周报:美军下场炸伊朗-20250622
Guo Lian Qi Huo·2025-06-22 12:13