7、8月关注美豆主产区天气炒作情况，豆粕短期或震荡偏强

Report Title - The report is titled "Hualian Futures Feed Weekly Report: Pay Attention to Weather Speculation in US Soybean Main Producing Areas in July and August, Soybean Meal May Be Range-Bound with an Uptrend in the Short Term" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoint - Given the uncertainty of China-US trade policies and the potential drought in US soybean producing areas, soybean meal is expected to be range-bound with an uptrend in the short term [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Viewpoint and Strategy Fundamental Viewpoint - In the US, rainfall in the Midwest main producing areas in the next half - month is generally unfavorable for soybean growth. In South America, it is the peak season for Brazilian soybean exports, and the premium of Brazilian soybeans has slightly rebounded. In China, the arrival volume of imported soybeans will continue to increase in the next two months, and soybean meal inventory will continue to rise, but it is still at a historical low for this period, and downstream demand will pick up in the second half of the year, which is positive for domestic soybean meal prices [4] Strategy Viewpoint and Outlook - Unilateral: The support level of soybean meal 2509 is recommended to refer to 2850. For options, it is recommended to continue holding out - of - the - money call options on soybean meal. Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines for now. Outlook: Monitor the weather in US soybean producing areas, the arrival of imported soybeans, domestic soybean meal demand, and China - Canada and China - US trade relations. Overall, soybean and rapeseed meal are expected to be range - bound with an uptrend in the short term [6] 2. Industrial Chain Structure - No specific content about the industrial chain structure is summarized in the text other than the title 3. Futures and Spot Markets - Last week, soybean meal futures were range - bound with an uptrend, mainly due to the indirect positive impact of the US biofuel policy on US soybeans. The June USDA report made no adjustments to soybean data and was neutral. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated widely and is currently at a mid - level historically, so it is recommended to stay on the sidelines. The 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal was range - bound with a downtrend, and it is also recommended to stay on the sidelines [15][16][20][23] 4. Supply Side - US Soybean Sales Data: As of May 29, 2025, the net sales volume of US soybeans in the market year was 61,394 tons. US Soybean Pressing Data: As of the week of June 13, 2025, the US soybean pressing profit was $1.87 per bushel, a 25.50% increase from the previous week and a 16.52% decrease from the same period last year. China's Soybean Import Volume: In May 2025, China imported 1.3918 million tons of soybeans, a month - on - month increase of 783,700 tons and a year - on - year increase of 369,600 tons (36.16%). From January to May 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.7108 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25,600 tons (0.69%). China's Rapeseed Import Volume: Data charts are provided but no specific import volume information is summarized. Domestic Soybean and Rapeseed Pressing Data: Data charts are provided but no specific pressing volume information is summarized [30][36][39] 5. Demand Side - Pig Prices and Breeding Profits: Data charts of Chinese commercial pig slaughter average price, pig - grain ratio, self - breeding profit of pigs, and purchased - pig breeding profit are provided but no specific data analysis is summarized. Chicken Breeding Profits: Data charts of white - feather broiler breeding profit and laying hen breeding profit are provided but no specific data analysis is summarized [54][58][63] 6. Inventory - Domestic Soybean and Soybean Meal Inventory: As of June 13, the national port soybean inventory was 5.996 million tons, a 1.75% decrease from the previous week and an 8.59% increase from the same period last year; domestic oil mill soybean meal inventory was 410,000 tons, a 7.19% increase from the previous week and a 58.79% decrease from the same period last year. Domestic Feed Mill Soybean Meal Physical Inventory Days: As of June 20, 2025, the physical inventory days of domestic feed enterprises' soybean meal were 7.74 days, a 11.75% increase from June 13 and a 4.08% increase from the same period last year. Domestic Rapeseed and Rapeseed Meal Inventory: As of June 13, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills was 174,000 tons, a decrease of 28,000 tons from the previous week; rapeseed meal inventory was 15,500 tons, a decrease of 3,500 tons from the previous week; and the unexecuted contract was 55,500 tons, an increase of 4,500 tons from the previous week [71][74][76]