宏观和大类资产配置周报：本周A股表现弱势-20250622

Macro Economic Overview - The report indicates a weak performance in the A-share market, with the CSI 300 index declining by 0.45% and CSI 300 futures down by 2.17% [1][12] - The report maintains the asset allocation order as: equities > commodities > bonds > cash [1][3] Economic Data and Policy Insights - Economic data for May shows a mixed performance, with industrial value-added growth slowing compared to April, while retail sales growth improved significantly [2] - The Lujiazui Forum held on June 18 announced several key financial policies aimed at supporting the construction of Shanghai as an international financial center, including measures to enhance the internationalization of the RMB and increase openness to foreign capital [2][21] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests an overweight position in equities, particularly focusing on the implementation of "incremental" policies [4] - Bonds are recommended to be underweight due to potential short-term impacts from the "stock-bond seesaw" effect [4] - Commodities are maintained at a standard allocation, with attention to the progress of fiscal policies [4] Market Performance Analysis - The report highlights that only the Shanghai Dividend Index saw an increase of 0.24% this week, while the broader market indices, including the CSI 500 and CSI 1000, experienced declines of 1.75% and 1.74% respectively [36] - In the bond market, the ten-year government bond yield remained stable at 1.64%, while the ten-year government development bond yield decreased by 4 basis points to 1.68% [41] Sector Performance - The banking sector led the gains among industries with a rise of 3.13%, while the pharmaceutical sector faced the largest decline at 4.16% [36] - The report notes a significant interest in technology sectors, particularly with the introduction of new listing standards for innovative companies on the STAR Market [38] Consumer Market Insights - The report indicates a recovery in the real estate market, with a slight increase in transaction volumes in major cities, suggesting that "stabilizing real estate" policies may have a positive effect in the second half of the year [33] - The automotive sector shows strong growth, with wholesale and retail sales of passenger vehicles increasing by 38% and 23% year-on-year respectively [33]