2025年Alpha半年度行情展望：Alpha策略半年度回顾及展望

Group 1 - The A-share market in the first half of 2025 experienced a rebound despite facing mid-term tariff shocks, with significant trading volume and volatility providing a favorable environment for quantitative strategies [3][6][14] - The return of small-cap stocks has set the tone for quantitative strategy performance, with the ChiNext and CSI 2000 indices outperforming larger indices like the CSI 300 [6][10][18] - The overall A-share environment has been friendly to quantitative strategies, characterized by significant volatility and trading volume exceeding one trillion, which supports high-frequency trading strategies [14][15] Group 2 - Alpha products and managers performed well in the first half of 2025, with most long products achieving positive returns, particularly in quantitative stock selection [16][17] - The average return for quantitative stock selection products exceeded 12%, benefiting from the favorable small-cap market environment [17][19] - New quantitative strategies are emerging, with the CSI 2000 index showing strong performance due to its small-cap focus and lower competition compared to traditional indices [28][29] Group 3 - The risk associated with small-cap stocks needs close attention, as they have shown extreme trading heat and significant divergence from larger indices, indicating potential for a market correction [32][39] - The macroeconomic environment, policy support, liquidity conditions, and technological advancements are driving the performance of small-cap stocks, but caution is warranted due to high valuations and the presence of loss-making companies [34][36][37] - The correlation between quantitative products and small-cap stocks suggests that while there are benefits, there is also a need for careful risk management to avoid potential downturns similar to past market events [40][41]