债市微观结构跟踪：短端成交升温

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The micro trading thermometer reading of the bond market this period remained basically flat at 49% [10]. - The number of indicators in the over - heated range increased to 25%. The 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate quantile rebounded significantly, the allocation disk strength continued to weaken, the policy spread quantile widened significantly, and all comparison indicators were in the cold range [10]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overall Indicator Distribution - Among the 20 micro - indicators, the number of indicators in the over - heated range increased to 5 (25% of the total), the number in the neutral range decreased to 6 (30% of the total), and the number in the cold range increased to 9 (45% of the total). The 1/10Y turnover rate moved from the neutral range to the over - heated range, and the market spread moved from the neutral range to the cold range [3][18]. 3.2 Transaction Heat Indicators - Only the quantile of the 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate decreased by 28 percentage points, while the quantiles of other indicators rebounded. The quantiles of the 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate, the whole - market turnover rate, and the institutional leverage increased by 21, 22, and 10 percentage points respectively. The average quantile of transaction heat increased by 4 percentage points [4]. - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range rose to 33%, the proportion in the neutral range rose to 50%, and the proportion in the cold range remained at 17%. The 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate quantile increased by 21 percentage points, moving from the neutral range to the over - heated range [5][21]. 3.3 Institutional Behavior Indicators - The quantiles of the allocation disk strength and the listed company's wealth management purchase volume decreased by 22 and 17 percentage points respectively, while the quantiles of other indicators rebounded slightly. The average quantile of institutional behavior decreased by 4 percentage points [4]. - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range rose to 38%, the proportion in the neutral range decreased to 25%, and the proportion in the cold range remained at 38%. The quantiles of the allocation disk strength and the listed company's wealth management purchase volume fell to 10% and 21% respectively [6][25]. 3.4 Spread Indicators - The market spread decreased by 1 percentage point, the policy spread quantile increased by 11 percentage points, and the average quantile of spreads increased by 5 percentage points [4]. - The policy spread continued to narrow by 3bp to 0bp, and its quantile increased by 11 percentage points to 54%, remaining in the neutral range. The credit spread, IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread, and Agricultural Development - National Development spread were basically flat, and the average spread widened slightly by 1bp to 19bp, with its quantile slightly decreasing by 1 percentage point to 39%, remaining in the neutral range [6][29]. 3.5 Comparison Indicators - The quantile of the stock - bond comparison decreased by 2 percentage points, the quantile of the commodity comparison increased by 1 percentage point, and other comparison indicators changed little. The average quantile of comparisons was basically flat compared with the previous period [4]. - All comparison indicators were in the cold range. The quantile of the stock - bond comparison continued to fall by 2 percentage points to 36%, the quantile of the commodity comparison increased slightly by 1 percentage point to 13%, and the quantile of the real - estate comparison was basically flat [7][32].