黑色建材周报：下游需求回升，煤价震荡运行-20250622

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The downstream demand for coal is picking up, and coal prices are fluctuating. In the short - term, due to the tightened safety supervision in the production areas during the safety month in June, the supply is significantly reduced, and with the rising temperature, the demand is expected to strengthen, leading to a slight increase in prices. In the long - term, the pattern of loose supply remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to the consumption and restocking of non - power coal. Due to the severe lack of futures liquidity, it is recommended to wait and see [1][3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Price: As of June 20, among the origin indexes, the Yulin 5800 - kcal index was 482.0 yuan/ton, up 10.0 yuan/ton week - on - week; the Ordos 5500 - kcal index was 425.0 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan/ton week - on - week; the Datong 5500 - kcal index was 480.0 yuan/ton, up 11.0 yuan/ton week - on - week. Among the port indexes, the CCI Import 4700 index was reported at 62.5 US dollars/ton, down 0.5 US dollars/ton week - on - week, and the CCI Import 3800 index was reported at 47.8 US dollars/ton, down 0.2 US dollars/ton week - on - week [2][5]. - Inventory: As of June 20, the total inventory of northern ports was 2689.0 million tons, an increase of 5.0 million tons from last week, and the port destocking speed slowed down. The coal inventory of 6 coastal power plants was 1399.8 million tons, an increase of 4.9 million tons from last week; the average available days were 17 days, a decrease of 2 days week - on - week; the daily consumption of power plants was 81.2 million tons, an increase of 6.7 million tons week - on - week [2][12]. Supply In June, which is the safety month, safety supervision in the production areas is tightened. Environmental protection and safety inspections in the main production areas are intensified, the number of coal mines with production suspension or reduction increases, and the overall coal supply is reduced [3][6]. Consumption As the temperature gradually rises, the demand for coal is expected to strengthen [3][7]. Strategy Due to the severe lack of futures liquidity, it is recommended to wait and see [3].