有色金属大宗金属周报：年中长单谈判悬而未决，铜价震荡-20250622

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4][108]. Core Views - The report highlights that copper prices are experiencing fluctuations due to unresolved negotiations for long-term contracts, with recent price changes of +0.83% for London copper, -0.03% for Shanghai copper, and +1.74% for New York copper. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring financial aspects such as U.S. import investigations and economic data [5][25]. - Aluminum prices are also fluctuating, with a decrease in alumina prices by 3.35% to 3170 CNY/ton, while electrolytic aluminum prices are stable at 20525 CNY/ton, supported by ongoing inventory depletion [5][36]. - Lithium prices are stabilizing at the bottom, with carbonate lithium prices down 0.41% to 60400 CNY/ton, and the report suggests waiting for supply-side reductions and seasonal demand support [5][77]. - Cobalt prices are expected to rebound due to an extended export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which may lead to raw material shortages in Q4 [5][90]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals sector has underperformed, with the Shenwan non-ferrous index down 3.57%, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.07 percentage points [11]. - The report notes that the U.S. retail sales for May fell by 0.9%, which was below expectations, while initial jobless claims were in line with forecasts [9]. 2. Industrial Metals 2.1 Copper - London copper prices increased by 0.83%, while Shanghai copper prices decreased by 0.03%. The report indicates a significant drop in London copper inventory by 13.34% [25]. 2.2 Aluminum - The report states that aluminum prices are experiencing high volatility, with a recent increase in aluminum profits by 3.60% to 4383 CNY/ton [36]. 2.3 Lead and Zinc - Lead prices saw a slight increase of 0.23% in London, while zinc prices rose by 1.91% in London [48]. 2.4 Tin and Nickel - Tin prices have shown minor fluctuations, with London tin prices up by 0.08% and Shanghai tin prices down by 1.26% [62]. 3. Energy Metals 3.1 Lithium - Lithium prices are under pressure, with carbonate lithium down 0.41% to 60400 CNY/ton, and the report suggests that the market is waiting for supply-side adjustments [77]. 3.2 Cobalt - Cobalt prices are stable domestically, with a slight decrease in MB cobalt prices by 0.32% to 15.63 USD/pound, while domestic cobalt prices remain unchanged at 23.50 CNY/ton [90].