国泰君安期货研究周报：农产品-20250622

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil is in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. Short - term pressure comes from the resumption of production. It is recommended to use strategies like expanding the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil and reverse arbitrage of 9 - 1 contracts. There is potential to go long at low levels before the fourth quarter [5][8]. - Soybean oil also has a weak - reality and strong - expectation pattern. There is an opportunity to go long in the fourth quarter, and attention should be paid to changes in palm oil inventory inflection points and US soybean oil biodiesel policy [7]. - Soybean meal and soybean futures prices are expected to adjust and fluctuate next week, waiting for the end - of - month US soybean acreage report [21]. - Corn is expected to run strongly. Although CBOT corn has fallen, wheat prices have risen and corn starch inventory has changed. The overall supply - demand balance of corn remains tight [39][45]. - The international sugar market is expected to consolidate at a low level, while the domestic sugar market is expected to rebound. Attention should be paid to factors such as Brazilian production and export rhythm and Indian industrial policies [69][71]. - The spot price of live pigs is expected to fluctuate. The policy of state reserve purchase provides support, but the inventory cycle in the second half of the year depends on the social circle rhythm. The LH2509 futures contract still has a short - term bullish sentiment [105][106]. - The peanut market is in a stalemate and fluctuating pattern. The futures market is mainly in a state of shock, and the lower side of the futures price has support. Attention should be paid to the peanut planting area and weather in the producing areas [117][118]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Palm Oil - Last Week's Performance: Due to the sudden positive news of US biodiesel obligation volume and the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the palm oil 09 contract rose 4.86% last week [4]. - This Week's Outlook: June rainfall in Malaysia is expected to be dry, with production estimated to be 1.7 - 1.75 million tons. There is a risk that production from July to August may be lower than last year. Exports are strong, and there is a strong expectation of inventory reduction in June. The US biodiesel policy is positive for the international oil market. However, if production in Malaysia and Indonesia remains strong from July to August, there will be a large inventory accumulation pressure from August to September. It is recommended to use spread strategies in the short term and consider going long at low levels before the fourth quarter [5]. Soybean Oil - Last Week's Performance: Affected by the US biodiesel obligation volume and the Middle East situation, the soybean oil 09 contract rose 4.75% last week [4]. - This Week's Outlook: The EPA's significant increase in the 2026 biomass diesel RVO is positive for US soybean oil. The domestic soybean oil is in a weak - reality and strong - expectation pattern. Inventory may peak in July, and there is an opportunity to go long in the fourth quarter [6][7]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - Last Week's Performance: US soybean futures prices first rose and then fell. Domestic soybean meal and soybean futures prices were strongly volatile. The net sales of US soybeans decreased week - on - week but were higher than expected. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate decreased week - on - week. Domestic soybean meal had high - volume trading in the far - month basis, and the Heilongjiang provincial reserve soybean auction was fully successful [17]. - Next Week's Outlook: The prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean are expected to adjust and fluctuate, waiting for the end - of - month US soybean acreage report [21]. Corn - Market Review: In the spot market, corn prices rose in the week of June 20. In the futures market, the price broke through and rose. The basis of the main contract weakened [39][40]. - Market Outlook: CBOT corn fell due to increased rainfall in the US Midwest. Wheat prices rose, and imported corn auctions were suspended. Corn starch inventory decreased. The overall supply - demand balance of corn remains tight, and the price is expected to run strongly [41][45]. Sugar - This Week's Review: In the international market, the net long position of funds in the New York raw sugar decreased significantly. In the domestic market, the spot price of Guangxi sugar groups decreased, and the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar rose. The 24/25 sugar - making season in China had an increase in production and sales [69][70]. - Next Week's Outlook: The international sugar market is expected to consolidate at a low level, while the domestic sugar market is expected to rebound. Attention should be paid to factors such as Brazilian production and export rhythm and Indian industrial policies [71][102]. Live Pigs - This Week's Review: The spot price of live pigs was strongly volatile. The supply was tight, and the demand was slightly improved compared with the beginning of the month. The futures price of live pigs was also strongly volatile [103][104]. - Next Week's Outlook: The spot price is expected to fluctuate. The state reserve purchase policy provides support, but the inventory cycle in the second half of the year depends on the social circle rhythm. The LH2509 futures contract still has a short - term bullish sentiment [105][106]. Peanuts - Market Review: The spot price of peanuts rose, but the momentum for continuous price increase was insufficient. The futures price fluctuated [117]. - Market Outlook: The market is in a stalemate and fluctuating pattern. The futures market is mainly in a state of shock, and the lower side of the futures price has support. Attention should be paid to the peanut planting area and weather in the producing areas [118].