镍：远端镍矿端预期松动，冶炼端限制上方弹性不锈钢：供需边际双弱，钢价低位震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Nickel and Stainless Steel - The expectation of the nickel ore end in the long - term is loosening, and the smelting end restricts the upward elasticity of nickel prices. Global refined nickel inventories are increasing marginally. Stainless steel supply and demand are both weakening marginally, and steel prices are oscillating at a low level [4][5]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon has a fast short - term warehouse receipt clearance, but the upside space is limited. Polysilicon should maintain a short - selling strategy. The fundamentals of both show an oversupply situation [30][34][35]. Carbonate Lithium - The supply of carbonate lithium is increasing while the demand is decreasing. The price is expected to be under pressure, showing a weak oscillation. Opportunities for short - selling at high prices and reverse spreads should be awaited [62][63][64]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Palm oil is in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. The short - term pressure comes from the resumption of production, and the strategy is mainly based on spread expressions. There are potential long - term bullish factors. Soybean oil is also in a weak - reality and strong - expectation pattern, with potential upward space after the third quarter [88][89][91]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Nickel - Fundamentals: The logic of the ore end is dull, and the smelting end restricts the upside space. The global refined nickel inventory is increasing marginally, and the nickel - iron is in a state of surplus and inventory accumulation. The price of nickel is affected by factors such as the expected increase in Indonesian quotas and the possible removal of the Philippine raw ore export ban [4]. - Inventory Changes: China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 1,437 tons to 36,471 tons, while LME nickel inventory increased by 7,602 tons to 205,140 tons. The mid - June nickel - iron inventory increased by 58% year - on - year and 10% month - on - month [6][7]. - Market News: There are various events such as the potential suspension of nickel exports from Canada to the US, the trial production of a nickel - iron project in Indonesia, the resumption of production of a nickel smelter, and the shutdown of a cold - rolling mill [10]. Stainless Steel - Fundamentals: Production and imports are decreasing marginally, the inventory pressure remains, and the steel price is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term. In the long term, the price center may be difficult to lift significantly [5]. - Inventory Changes: The total social inventory of stainless steel increased by 1.04% week - on - week, with increases in both cold - rolled and hot - rolled inventories [7]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - Price Movement: The industrial silicon futures rebounded slightly this week, and the spot price remained stable. The futures closed at 7,390 yuan/ton on Friday [30]. - Supply - Demand Fundamentals: The industry inventory is de - stocking again. The supply is expected to increase as factories in Xinjiang and Sichuan continue to resume production. The demand from downstream industries has short - term increases in some aspects but is still mainly based on rigid demand [31][32]. - Future Outlook: The strategy is to short at high prices. The follow - up focus is on the warehouse receipt situation. The high inventory restricts the upside space of the futures price [34]. Polysilicon - Price Movement: The polysilicon futures declined significantly this week, and the spot price is also expected to decrease [30]. - Supply - Demand Fundamentals: The upstream inventory is slightly de - stocking. The supply is expected to increase as some factories resume production, while the terminal demand is declining, and the silicon wafer production is expected to be adjusted downward [31][32][33]. - Future Outlook: The strategy is to short at high prices. The price is expected to continue to decline towards the real cost line [35]. Carbonate Lithium - Price Movement: The main contract of carbonate lithium oscillated downward. The 2507 contract closed at 59,820 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the spot price decreased by 250 yuan/ton to 60,400 yuan/ton [62]. - Supply - Demand Fundamentals: The supply is increasing as the production and operating rate of the smelting end are growing. The demand is weakening as new energy vehicle sales show no significant increase, and the energy storage demand is expected to decline after reaching a peak in May. The inventory is accumulating [63]. - Future Outlook: The price is expected to oscillate weakly. Short - selling at high prices after the long - buying intention of the near - month contract is clear and reverse spreads after the end of June are recommended [64][65]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil Palm Oil - Last Week's Logic: The 09 contract rose by 4.86% due to the sudden positive news of the US biodiesel obligation and the geopolitical tension in the Middle East [88]. - This Week's Logic: The production in Malaysia is expected to be flat or slightly decrease in June. The export is strong, and there is a strong expectation of inventory reduction in June. It is in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. The short - term strategy is based on spread expressions, and long - buying can be considered at low levels before the fourth quarter [89]. Soybean Oil - Last Week's Logic: The 09 contract rose by 4.75% due to the sudden positive news of the US biodiesel obligation and the geopolitical tension in the Middle East [88]. - This Week's Logic: Internationally, the US EPA's policy will lead to an increase in the demand for soybean oil. Domestically, the inventory is accumulating currently but may reach a peak in July. It is also in a weak - reality and strong - expectation pattern, and long - buying opportunities can be observed in the fourth quarter [90][91].