周报：刚果（金）钴出口禁令延期，或提振钴价上行-20250622

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "stronger than the market" rating [7] Core Views - Precious Metals: The repeated changes in US tariff policies do not alter the long-term allocation value of gold. Recent economic data from the US shows a weakening trend, increasing market concerns about the economic outlook. This weak economic data will provide a basis for the Federal Reserve's future interest rate cuts. According to a survey by the World Gold Council, 76% of 73 global central banks expect to continue increasing their gold holdings over the next five years to diversify away from dollar assets, highlighting the central banks' willingness to purchase gold amid geopolitical factors and declining dollar credit. In the short term, potential risks and uncertainties from "reciprocal tariffs" support market risk aversion, leading to a price increase for gold, which is expected to show an overall pattern of easy rise and difficult fall. In the medium to long term, the core of gold trading remains risk aversion and stagflation trading under the uncertainty of global tariff policies and geopolitical factors, maintaining its long-term allocation value [3][12][13] - Industrial Metals: The supply-demand tightness remains unchanged, making it generally easy to rise and difficult to fall. For copper, the short-term expectation of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts continues, and the tight supply-demand pattern supports copper prices. In the medium to long term, as the Federal Reserve deepens interest rate cuts, it will boost investment and consumption, while opening up domestic monetary policy space. Additionally, the potential inflation rebound from the subsequent wide fiscal policies of the Trump administration will support the upward movement of copper price levels. Strong demand from the new energy sector will further widen the supply-demand gap, continuing to favor copper prices [4][14][15] - New Energy Metals: The extension of the cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo may boost cobalt prices. The lithium market faces a dual weakness in supply and demand, with limited support from lithium salt plant repairs and production cuts. In the medium to long term, lithium mines are considered the most quality and elastic targets in the electric vehicle supply chain, suggesting strategic stock layout opportunities. Recommended stocks include Salt Lake Co., Cangge Mining, Yongxing Materials, and Zhongkuang Resources, with elastic attention to Jiangte Electric, Tianqi Lithium, and Ganfeng Lithium [4][19] - Other Minor Metals: The prices of rare earths remain stable. The tightening of spot supply and the slight reduction in the operating rate of separation plants due to cost and raw material supply issues have led to a relatively firm pricing environment. Demand is steadily increasing, with major magnetic material manufacturers continuing to procure, indicating that the demand remains, although the cautious purchasing attitude affects the overall order stability [5][20][23] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The long-term allocation value of gold remains unchanged despite US tariff policy fluctuations [3][12][13] - Recommended stocks include Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Gold, with attention to Hunan Gold and Zhaojin Mining [3][12][13] Industrial Metals - The supply-demand tightness continues, supporting copper prices in the short term and medium to long term [4][14][15] - Recommended stocks include Luoyang Molybdenum, Tongling Nonferrous Metals, and West Mining [4][14][15] New Energy Metals - The cobalt export ban extension may lead to price increases [4][19] - Recommended stocks include Salt Lake Co., Cangge Mining, and Yongxing Materials [4][19] Other Minor Metals - Rare earth prices are stable, with demand increasing [5][20][23] - Recommended stocks include Hunan Gold, Huaxi Youshi, and Zhongjin Gold [5][20][23]