Guohai Securities·2025-06-22 13:35Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the chemical industry [1] Core Views - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the conflict between Israel and Iran, are expected to drive demand for military materials and agricultural products, benefiting companies involved in metals like chromium and agricultural chemicals [4][5] - The supply side is facing potential disruptions due to the conflict affecting oil and gas supplies, which could impact various chemical products [4] - The report highlights the increasing importance of chromium salts, with a shift in demand from metallic chromium to chromium salts, indicating a potential for growth in this segment [5][6] - Phosphate rock supply-demand dynamics are expected to remain tight, with increasing demand from lithium iron phosphate batteries and other fine chemical applications [7] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The chemical industry has shown varied performance, with basic chemicals down by 2.4% over the last month, while the broader market (CSI 300) is down by 1.3% [3] Price Movements - Key products like methanol and potassium chloride have seen significant price increases, with methanol up by 11.51% to 2785 RMB/ton and potassium chloride up by 2.88% to 3041 RMB/ton [12][13] Company-Specific Insights - Companies like Zhuhai Holdings are expected to benefit from the rising demand for chromium salts, with production capacity and pricing dynamics favoring this segment [6] - Batan Co. is expanding its phosphate rock production capacity, which is projected to enhance its market position amid rising prices for phosphates and sulfur [7] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies several investment opportunities in the chemical sector, including low-cost expansion strategies and companies with strong dividend yields, such as China Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil Corporation [9][10] - The focus on new materials and high-growth sectors, particularly in electronic chemicals and aerospace materials, is highlighted as a key area for potential investment [10] Market Outlook - The chemical industry is expected to enter a replenishment cycle due to anticipated fiscal policy support in China and the U.S., alongside supply constraints in Europe [34]