Report Title - The report is titled "Huaxian Futures Iron Ore Weekly Report: Demand Resilience Remains, and Ore Prices Are Strongly Supported" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The iron ore market still has expectations of increasing supply and decreasing demand, but currently, the demand side shows strong resilience, supporting the ore price. In the short term, the iron ore price will maintain a volatile trend. It is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies for the Iron Ore 2509 contract, with a reference resistance level of 730 yuan/ton [5] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Viewpoint and Strategy Supply - From June 9th to June 15th, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 1577,000 tons week - on - week to 33.527 million tons. Australian 19 - port shipments were 19.936 million tons, down 1 million tons week - on - week; Brazilian 19 - port shipments were 7.726 million tons, up 268,000 tons week - on - week; non - mainstream region shipments decreased by 845,000 tons week - on - week to 5.865 million tons. China's 45 - port arrivals decreased by 224,800 tons week - on - week to 23.845 million tons, and the arrivals at the six northern ports were 12.19 million tons, down 1.646 million tons week - on - week. Although the current shipments and arrivals have decreased, they are still at a high level in the same period of history, and there is an expectation of increased shipments by mines at the end of the quarter, so the supply pressure of iron ore remains high [5] Demand - As of June 20th, 2025, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills surveyed by MYSTEEL was 59.31%, up 0.87% from the previous week; the blast furnace operating rate was 83.82%, up 0.41% from the previous week; the daily average hot metal output increased by 5700 tons to 2.4218 million tons, ending a five - week decline. Last week, the demand for steel products rebounded, the profitability rate of steel mills significantly rebounded due to raw material price concessions, the operating rate also increased, and the demand for hot metal showed strong resilience, providing support for ore prices. However, attention should still be paid to the pressure on ore prices caused by the seasonal weakening of terminal demand [5] Inventory - As of June 20th, 2025, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports across the country was 138.9416 million tons, down 389,800 tons week - on - week. In terms of countries of origin, the inventory of Australian ore was 60.1744 million tons, up 114,800 tons week - on - week; the inventory of Brazilian ore was 49.5779 million tons, down 1.1035 million tons week - on - week. The inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills was 89.3624 million tons, up 1.3756 million tons week - on - week. The average available days of imported ore inventory for a small sample of steel mills was 19 days, 2 days less than the previous week. Although the port inventory of iron ore has decreased, considering the subsequent loose shipments from mines, there is a risk of inventory accumulation at ports [5] 2. Industrial Chain Structure - This section mainly presents various charts related to the iron ore futures market, including the prices of DCE iron ore 09 and 01 contracts, contract spreads, variety spreads, and basis differences of different iron ore varieties, but no specific text analysis is provided [10][12][14][16] 3. Inventory Side Port Inventory (by Country) - As of June 20th, 2025, the inventory of Australian ore at 45 ports was 60.1744 million tons, up 114,800 tons week - on - week; the inventory of Brazilian ore was 49.5779 million tons, down 1.1035 million tons week - on - week [26] Port Inventory - As of June 20th, 2025, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports across the country was 138.9416 million tons, down 389,800 tons week - on - week [30] Mine - Type Inventory - This section presents charts of the inventory of iron concentrate powder, pellets, coarse powder, and lump ore at 45 ports, but no specific text analysis is provided [31][33] Port Congestion - This section presents charts of the number of congested ships and congestion days at 45 ports, but no specific text analysis is provided [39] Steel Mill Inventory - As of June 20th, 2025, the inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills was 89.3624 million tons, up 1.3756 million tons week - on - week. The average available days of imported ore inventory for a small sample of steel mills was 19 days, 2 days less than the previous week [42] 4. Supply Side Australia and Brazil Shipments - From June 9th to June 15th, 2025, Australian 19 - port shipments were 19.936 million tons, down 1 million tons week - on - week; Brazilian 19 - port shipments were 7.726 million tons, up 268,000 tons week - on - week [46] Global Shipments - From June 9th to June 15th, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 1577,000 tons week - on - week to 33.527 million tons. Non - mainstream region shipments decreased by 845,000 tons week - on - week to 5.865 million tons [49] Four Major Mines - This section presents charts of the shipments of four major mines (FMG, VALE, BHP, RIO TINTO) to China, but no specific text analysis is provided [52][53] Arrivals at 45 Ports - From June 9th to June 15th, 2025, the arrivals at 45 ports in China decreased by 224,800 tons week - on - week to 23.845 million tons; the total arrivals at the six northern ports were 12.19 million tons, down 1.646 million tons week - on - week [59] Monthly Imports by Country - This section presents charts of China's iron ore import volume, imports from Australia, Brazil, and India, and imports of different mine types, but no specific text analysis is provided [63][64][66] Domestic Mine Supply - As of June 20th, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 126 mine enterprises was 63.45%, up 2.13% week - on - week; the daily average output of iron concentrate powder was 40030 tons, an increase of 1340 tons from the previous week [78] 5. Demand Side Hot Metal and Operating Rate - As of June 20th, 2025, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills surveyed by MYSTEEL was 83.82%, up 0.41% from the previous week; the daily average hot metal output increased by 5700 tons to 2.4218 million tons, ending a five - week decline, indicating strong resilience in hot metal demand and providing support for ore prices [81] Transaction Situation - This section presents charts of the daily average trading volume of iron ore forward spot and the total trading volume of iron ore at major Chinese ports, but no specific text analysis is provided [83] Port Clearance - As of June 20th, 2025, the daily average clearance volume at 45 ports was 3.1356 million tons, up 123,100 tons week - on - week [87] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - This section presents charts of the production and consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coil, but no specific text analysis is provided [88][90] Long - Process and Short - Process - This section presents charts of the production of long - process and short - process rebar, but no specific text analysis is provided [97] Steel Mill Profitability and Coke Profit per Ton - As of June 20th, 2025, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills was 59.31%, up 0.87% from the previous week. The average profit per ton of coke was - 23 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan/ton from the previous week [101]
铁矿石周报：需求韧性仍存，矿价支撑较强-20250622
Hua Lian Qi Huo·2025-06-22 13:38