华联期货鸡蛋周报：供过于求，蛋价承压-20250622

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The spot price of eggs in the main producing areas rebounded from a low level this week, but the overall storage volume was small and the support for the market was limited. Currently in the seasonal off - season of demand, coupled with the plum rain season in the South, the egg price is under pressure [7][17]. - In May, the national laying - hen inventory reached a new high this year. Although it is expected that the laying - hen inventory will stop increasing in June, the reduction in supply is limited, and the demand is weak. The egg price may fall to a new low this year [7]. - The chicken - fry replenishment volume is currently at a historical high, and the supply of eggs is under pressure in the medium term. The egg price may continue to decline in the near term but may have bottom support in the second half of the year [9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - level Views and Strategies Fundamental Views - The spot price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.73 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.05 yuan per catty from last week, a decline of 1.80%. The low - price area reported 2.60 yuan per catty. Cold storage and food enterprises made tentative purchases, but the storage volume was small [7]. - In May, the national laying - hen inventory was about 1.275 billion, a month - on - month increase of 1.76% and a year - on - year increase of 6.78%. The number of newly opened - production chickens was greater than the number of old chickens leaving the market. In June, the number of newly opened - production chickens is expected to decline slightly, and the laying rate of laying hens will decrease. The overall demand is in the off - season, and the egg price is under pressure [7]. Strategy Views and Outlook - The chicken - fry replenishment volume is at a high level, and the egg price is under medium - term pressure. The egg price may continue to decline in the near term. It is recommended to continue holding the short position of out - of - the - money call options for near - month contracts. For far - month contracts, pay attention to the support at the 3600 level of the 09 contract and consider going long lightly in case of an over - decline [9][10]. - The 08 contract has a large premium. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up, with a short - term pressure level of 3700 [10]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - The spot price of eggs in the main producing areas rebounded from a low level. The average price was 2.73 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.05 yuan per catty from last week, a decline of 1.80%. The low - price area reported 2.60 yuan per catty. Cold storage and food enterprises made tentative purchases, but the support for the market was limited. Currently in the seasonal off - season of demand, the egg price is under pressure [7][17]. 3.3 Supply Side - In May, the national laying - hen inventory was about 1.275 billion, a month - on - month increase of 1.76% and a year - on - year increase of 6.78%. It is expected that the laying - hen inventory will stop increasing in June, and the supply pressure may ease [29]. - In May, the total sales volume of chicken fry was 45.32 million, a month - on - month decrease of 3.66%. Although the sales volume decreased month - on - month, it was still at a high level. The supply pressure of eggs remains unchanged, and the egg price is under medium - term pressure [35]. - Due to low egg prices and rising feed costs, the enthusiasm for chicken culling has increased, but the number of cullable chickens is limited this month. The total culling volume of old hens this week was 539,100, a month - on - month decrease of 0.44% [40][43]. 3.4 Demand Side - The demand for eggs shows seasonal characteristics. The price usually reaches the lowest level around April, the highest level in late May, and the highest level of the year in mid - to - late September [60]. - Currently in the seasonal off - season of demand, the terminal replenishment is cautious, and the overall demand lacks positive support [7]. 3.5 Cost Side - Corn prices are rising due to reduced supply and trade frictions. Although the supply of soybean meal will be alleviated, the feed cost of laying - hen farming is expected to rise in the medium term, providing bottom support for the egg price [65]. - The egg cost line is an important driving factor for price changes, and the egg price, cost, and profit are generally positively correlated [69]. 3.6 Cost and Profit - This week, the cost of laying - hen farming was 3.55 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 yuan per catty, an increase of 0.85%. The farming profit was - 0.82 yuan per catty, a month - on - month decrease of 0.08 yuan per catty, a decline of 8.89% [76].