华联期货周报：矿端复产反复，价格震荡-20250622

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the Shanghai tin market showed minor fluctuations with a weekly decline of 1.19%. On June 20, 2025, the spot price of 1 tin was 263,500 yuan/ton, with small futures price fluctuations and little change in the basis [11]. - In May, refined tin production decreased slightly month - on - month, and the import of tin ore from January to April 2025 dropped significantly year - on - year. Alphamin reduced its production guidance to 17,500 tons, a 0.4% decrease in annual output. The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar has been inconsistent [11]. - Recently, the improvement in macro - trade disputes is expected to lead to a marginal improvement in demand. In May, the new energy sector maintained good demand, while the traditional sectors had mixed performance. The Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, lowered the 2025 GDP forecast to 1.4%, and raised the inflation forecast to 3%. In May, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% [11]. - With the tin ore supply remaining tight, processing fees are weak, and overall, profits will remain low due to ore - end interference [11]. - LME, SHFE, and social inventories all decreased week - on - week, which is conducive to inventory reduction [11]. - Considering the improvement in macro - trade disputes but inconsistent ore - end situations, and the price having returned to the level around the "Congo tin ore incident", with most of the supply - demand and macro - improvement expectations already reflected, there is currently limited driving force. Short - term range trading is recommended, with a reference range of 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton. Future focus should be on the implementation of macro - measures, disturbances from Myanmar and Congo tin mines, trade negotiations, and consumption data verification [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Viewpoints and Strategies - Price Trend: The Shanghai tin market had minor fluctuations last week, with a 1.19% weekly decline. The spot price of 1 tin was 263,500 yuan/ton on June 20, 2025, with small futures price fluctuations and little basis change [11]. - Supply: In May, refined tin production decreased slightly month - on - month. Tin ore imports from January to April 2025 dropped significantly year - on - year. Alphamin reduced its production guidance, and the resumption of tin mines in Myanmar has been inconsistent [11]. - Demand: The improvement in macro - trade disputes is expected to lead to a marginal improvement in demand. In May, the new energy sector had good demand, while the traditional sectors had mixed performance. The Fed's interest rate decision and economic data were also presented [11]. - Cost and Profit: With tight ore supply, processing fees are weak, and profits will remain low [11]. - Inventory: LME, SHFE, and social inventories all decreased week - on - week, which is conducive to inventory reduction [11]. - Strategy: Short - term range trading is recommended, with a reference range of 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton. Future focus should be on macro - measures, tin mine disturbances, trade negotiations, and consumption data [11]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Structure - There is no specific content about the industrial chain structure other than the title in the provided text. 3.3 Futures and Spot Markets - There are figures about SHFE and LME tin futures and spot prices and basis, but no detailed analysis content is provided [17]. 3.4 Inventory - As of June 19, 2025, SHFE inventory was 6,613 tons, decreasing week - on - week. As of June 18, 2025, LME total inventory was 2,200 tons, decreasing slightly week - on - week. As of June 13, 2025, refined tin social inventory was 8,947 tons, decreasing week - on - week [25][29]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - As of June 19, 2025, the processing fee for Yunnan concentrate was 11,000 yuan/ton, and that for Guangxi concentrate was 7,000 yuan/ton, remaining weak [33]. 3.6 Supply - In May 2025, refined tin production was 14,670 tons, decreasing slightly month - on - month. Domestic tin ore production in March was 5,628.49 tons, increasing month - on - month. In May 2025, the capacity utilization rate of tin enterprises was about 62.98%, slightly decreasing. There are also details about new production capacities in different countries and regions [38][41][43]. 3.7 Demand - In May 2025, China's automobile production was 2.642 million units, a 11.3% year - on - year increase; electronic computer production was 32.013 million units, a 10.8% year - on - year increase; PVC production was 2.0195 million tons, increasing month - on - month; mobile electronic communication production was 113.683 million units, a 7.2% year - on - year decrease; air - conditioner production was 30.833 million units, a 1.6% year - on - year increase; refrigerator production was 851,000 units, a 3.3% year - on - year decrease; washing machine production was 9.412 million units, a 1.6% year - on - year increase; color TV production was 15.764 million units, a 9.2% year - on - year decrease; solar cell production was 70.569 million kilowatts, a 27.8% year - on - year increase; and integrated circuit production was 4.235 billion pieces, an 11.5% year - on - year increase [49][54][57]. 3.8 Import and Export - From January to April 2025, China imported tin ore of 9,842 tons, 8,745 tons, 8,322.5 tons, and 9,861.25 tons respectively; imported tin of 2,334 tons, 1,869 tons, 2,100 tons, and 1,128 tons respectively; and exported refined tin of 2,131 tons, 2,373 tons, 1,714.6 tons, and 1,678.1 tons respectively [67]. 3.9 Supply - Demand Table - It shows the supply - demand balance of tin from 2017 - 2025E, including China's production, overseas production, global supply, China's demand, overseas demand, global demand, and global supply - demand balance [70].