Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious and optimistic stance on the short - term rise of gold [6] Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the gold market from multiple aspects including price trends, inflation, interest rates, supply - demand, and the US economy. It concludes that while the gold market has an upward impetus due to the ongoing Israel - Iran conflict and the continuous presence of its hedging property, factors such as the continuous decline of US inflation, the delay of the Fed's interest rate cut, and the stabilization of the US dollar index suppress the rise of gold. Overall, the long - term upward view of gold remains unchanged [4][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Trends - Since 2025, the cumulative increases of the London Gold and Shanghai Gold indexes have been 28.44% and 26.07% respectively, and last week they decreased by 1.83% and 1.99% respectively [4][16] 2. Inflation - In June 2022, the CPI data reached a new high of 9.1% and then declined moderately. The PCE also peaked and declined in June 2022. Core CPI and core PCE showed a downward trend. Since February 2024, the CPI rebounded for the first time, and the decline rate of core inflation slowed down or even rebounded. In May 2025, the US CPI increased by 2.4% year - on - year, lower than the expected 2.5%, and the previous value was 2.3%. The core CPI was 2.8% year - on - year, with an expected 2.9% and a previous value of 2.8%. In April 2025, the core PCE price index increased by 2.5% year - on - year, in line with expectations and slower than the previous revised value of 2.7%. The PCE price index increased by 2.1% year - on - year, lower than the expected 2.2% and the previous value of 2.3% [4][19] 3. Interest Rates - From mid - to late October 2023, the interest rate of US medium - term treasury bonds fluctuated downward until January 2025. Since February 2024, the US treasury bond interest rate has fluctuated and rebounded, then fluctuated and declined near last year's high, and recently fluctuated widely near the 2024 low [4][22] 4. Supply - Demand - When the gold supply - demand is in a tight balance, it is conducive to the rise of the gold price, but when it is in a weak balance, it has little impact on the gold price. In 2024, the global gold supply - demand looseness decreased, mainly due to a large increase in investment demand. In 2024, the domestic gold supply increased slightly year - on - year, and the demand decreased significantly year - on - year, but the domestic gold supply - demand was still in a tight balance, mainly due to a large increase in gold bars and coins. In the first quarter of 2025, investment demand increased significantly [4][34] 5. US Economy - In May 2025, the number of new jobs in the US was 139,000, higher than the market expectation of 130,000. The data from January to April was revised downward. In May 2025, the average hourly wage of US non - farm employees increased by 0.4% compared with the previous value of 0.3%, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%. The non - farm employment data in May 2025 continued to be better than expected. The US GDP in the first quarter of 2025 increased by 2.06% year - on - year, a decrease of 0.47%. The ISM manufacturing PMI in May 2025 was 48.5, declining for four consecutive months, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.9, dropping significantly again, perhaps affected by reciprocal tariffs [4][30] 6. Strategy and Outlook - The gold futures main contract continued its weak adjustment last Friday. The Israel - Iran conflict remained moderate. As long as the conflict persists, the hedging property of gold remains. Therefore, the report maintains a cautious and optimistic stance on the short - term rise of gold, and investors should pay attention to the pressure at the previous high. However, the continuous decline of US inflation, the delay of the Fed's interest rate cut, and the stabilization of the US dollar index suppress the rise of gold. The current main contradiction in the gold market is the hedging function of gold. The long - term upward view of gold remains unchanged. Technically, the support level for Shanghai Gold is 775 - 780 yuan. It is recommended to hold existing long positions for observation, and those with empty positions are advised to go long. For options, it is recommended to mainly buy call options [6] 7. Central Bank Gold Transactions - In the first quarter of 2025, the global central bank's gold purchase volume decreased compared with the fourth quarter of last year but still had a net purchase of 243.67 tons. From November 2022 to April 2024, the People's Bank of China continuously purchased gold. After six consecutive months without gold purchases, it continuously purchased gold from November 2024 to April 2025, with a total purchase of 44.16 tons since 2024. In 2023, it purchased 224.88 tons. In the first quarter of 2025, the central bank purchased 12.75 tons, 2.18 tons in April, and 1.87 tons in May [37] 8. ETF Demand - In 2023, the gold holding of ETFs decreased by 113.69 tons. In 2024, it decreased by 28.46 tons. As of June 20, last week, the gold ETFs significantly increased their holdings by 11.74 tons, and the gold holding in 2025 increased by 116.04 tons [40] 9. Exchange Rates and Dollar Index - The report does not provide specific analysis conclusions on exchange rates and the dollar index, only presenting relevant data charts 10. Gold Price Spread and Ratio - Last week, the spread between the domestic and foreign gold markets was at a normal level. The report also presented charts of the gold - silver ratio and the gold - oil ratio but did not provide specific analysis conclusions [62]
黄金周报：短期对黄金上涨保持谨慎乐观-20250622
Hua Lian Qi Huo·2025-06-22 13:36