华联期货周报：缺乏驱动，期价震荡-20250622

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro: The Federal Reserve kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% in June, with reduced but still high uncertainty. It lowered the 2025 GDP forecast to 1.4% and raised the inflation expectation to 3%. In May, China's industrial added - value and retail sales increased by 5.8% and 6.4% respectively. The international crude oil market is re - evaluating prices due to the tense Middle - East situation [7]. - Supply: In 2025, the RKAB approval provides sufficient raw materials for smelters, but policy risks remain. In May, China's ferronickel production increased slightly, and Indonesia's remained high. Sulfuric acid nickel enterprises' operating rate decreased, and production in May decreased month - on - month. In May 2025, China's refined nickel production was 35,995 tons, a slight decrease [7]. - Demand: In May, stainless steel demand was suppressed, and domestic stainless steel inventory exceeded 1 million tons. In the new energy industry chain, the market share of ternary batteries is declining, and the production of ternary materials in May was at a low level [7]. - Inventory: Last week, LME and SHFE nickel inventories increased slightly, while refined nickel social inventory decreased slightly to 37,008 tons [7]. - View: In the short term, although the RKAB approval provides raw materials, policy risks and the increase in Indonesia's privilege use fee for nickel resources raise supply costs. The short - term improvement in macro - trade disputes has a positive impact, but the nickel price lacks strong drivers due to large stainless steel inventories and energy cost fluctuations [7]. - Strategy: Trade the SHFE nickel 2508 contract short - term. Sell out - of - the - money call options. Pay attention to changes in the ore end, stainless steel production, and trade disputes [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Industrial Chain Structure - The nickel industry chain includes nickel ore (laterite nickel ore, sulfide nickel ore), wet - process intermediates, ferronickel, high - grade nickel matte, sulfuric acid nickel, electrolytic nickel, and downstream products such as stainless steel, batteries, electroplating, and alloys [9]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - The report presents charts of LME nickel premium/discount (spot/3 months in USD/ton) and SHFE electrolytic nickel main contract basis (CNY/ton) [11]. 3.3. Supply Side - Nickel Ore: In 2024, China's imports of Philippine nickel ore decreased significantly by 21.7% to 36.5763 million tons. In 2025, imports from January to April were 911,900 tons, 1.146 million tons, 1.535 million tons, and 2.914 million tons respectively [19]. - Nickel Pig Iron: In 2024, Indonesia's ferronickel production was 1.5138 million nickel tons, a 5.9% increase. In May 2025, it was 157,700 tons, a slight decrease. In 2024, China's ferronickel production was 296,400 nickel tons, a 20.9% decrease. In May 2025, it was 24,000 tons, a slight increase [22]. - Refined Nickel: In May 2025, China's refined nickel production was 35,995 tons. In April 2025, the apparent consumption was 39,373.3 tons [29]. - Nickel Imports and Exports: From January to April 2025, China's nickel imports were 234,000 tons, 185,000 tons, 219,000 tons, and 186,800 tons respectively, showing a decline from high levels. Exports from January to April were 17,000 tons, 23,000 tons, 16,000 tons, and 20,300 tons respectively [32]. 3.4. Intermediates - Wet - Process Intermediates: In May 2025, Indonesia's MHP production was 39,300 tons, reaching a historical high [36]. - High - Grade Nickel Matte: In 2024, Indonesia's high - grade nickel matte production was 267,000 tons, an 8.54% increase. In April - May 2025, production was 12,000 tons and 11,700 tons respectively. There are many planned intermediate production capacities from 2025 - 2027 [41]. - Sulfuric Acid Nickel: In May 2025, China's sulfuric acid nickel production was 29,850 tons, a decrease. From January to April 2025, imports of nickel sulfate were 14,021.9 tons, 16,421.4 tons, 18,380 tons, and 32,604 tons respectively [45]. 3.5. Demand Side - Stainless Steel Demand: In 2024, the production of 43 stainless steel sample enterprises was 38.2582 million tons, a 7.43% increase. In May 2025, production was 3.4629 million tons, returning to a high level. The latest total social inventory was 1,109,090 tons, a slight increase [49]. - Positive Electrode Material Demand: In 2024, the production of ternary precursors was 773,100 tons, a 1.5% decrease. The market share of ternary batteries has shrunk to nearly 20%. In May 2025, the production of ternary positive electrode materials was 60,700 tons, at a low level [53]. 3.6. Inventory Side - Social and Bonded Area Inventory: As of June 13, 2025, the refined nickel social inventory was 37,008 tons, a decrease [56]. - Exchange Inventory: As of June 18, 2025, the LME nickel inventory was 204,936 tons, a slight increase. As of June 19, 2025, the SHFE inventory was 21,765 tons, a slight increase [62].