华联期货生猪周报：情绪支撑，期价重心上移-20250622

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current supply - demand fundamentals of the pig market have not improved substantially. Although the short - term price is supported by factors such as farmers' reduced sales and increased second - fattening, the overall supply is still loose due to weakened terminal consumption, group farms' weight reduction and increased supply, and active sales by social farms [7]. - The pig production capacity is sufficient. Although the number of breeding sows has declined slightly, it is still above the normal level, and the production efficiency has increased. If pork consumption does not grow significantly, the room for pig price increase before September 2025 may be limited [7]. - In the short term, the improvement of market sentiment supports the strengthening of the futures market. The resistance level of the main contract is around 14,000. For options, out - of - the - money call options can be sold [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Views and Strategies - Fundamental Situation: The national average pig slaughter price was 14.12 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 1.07% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.63%. The supply - demand relationship remained loose. The number of breeding sows in April 2025 was 40.38 million, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3%. The production capacity was sufficient, and the pressure on pig slaughter in the later period was still large [7]. - Outlook and Strategy: The supply in the pig market is sufficient in the current and future periods, and the price is under downward pressure. The short - term market sentiment supports the strengthening of the futures market, and the resistance level of the main contract is 14,000. Out - of - the - money call options can be sold [8]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - Pig Futures and Spot Prices: The national average pig slaughter price was 14.12 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.15 yuan/kg and a week - on - week increase of 1.07%. The supply - demand fundamentals have not improved, and the market supply - demand remains loose [12]. - Futures Spreads: No specific analysis content provided, only pictures are shown. - Pig Standard - Fat and Gross - White Price Differences: The price of standard pigs was mainly supported by market sentiment, and the price of large pigs increased. The standard - fat price difference widened slightly compared with last week [29]. - Prices of Piglets and Binary Sows: The average price of 7 - kg weaned piglets was 445.71 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 4.98% and a year - on - year decrease of 33.00%. The price is expected to remain weak in the short term [33]. - Price of Culled Sows: The average price of culled sows was 10.50 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.77% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.02%. The price is expected to be weakly adjusted next week [36]. 3.3. Production Capacity - Inventory of Breeding Sows: In April 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.38 million, a decrease of 400,000 compared with December 2024. In May, the inventory of breeding sows in large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms increased slightly. It is expected that the inventory may not increase in June [40][44]. - Elimination Volume of Breeding Sows: In May, the elimination volume of breeding sows in large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms decreased slightly. It is expected that the elimination volume may be stable and difficult to decrease in June [48]. - Inventory Proportion of Breeding Sows: No specific analysis content provided, only pictures are shown. 3.4. Supply Side - Inventory of Commercial Pigs: In May, the inventory of commercial pigs in large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms increased. It is expected that the inventory may decrease in June [55]. - Slaughter Volume of Commercial Pigs: In May, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms decreased. It is expected that the actual slaughter volume may increase in June [58]. - Inventory Structure of Commercial Pigs: In May 2025, the inventory proportion of 7 - 49 kg piglets decreased, the inventory of 140 - kg and above large pigs decreased, and the inventory of 90 - 140 kg pigs increased slightly [61]. - Average Slaughter Weight of Commercial Pigs: The national average slaughter weight of foreign - ternary pigs was 123.78 kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15%. It is expected that the slaughter weight may continue to decrease slowly next week [64]. 3.5. Demand Side - Pig Slaughter Volume: No specific analysis content provided, only pictures are shown. - Cold Storage Rate of Slaughtering Enterprises: Terminal consumption is weak, and the cold storage rate of frozen products is at a low level. The domestic frozen products are in the de - stocking stage, and the impact on pig prices is limited [73]. - Operating Rate and Fresh Sales Rate of Slaughtering Enterprises: The operating rate of slaughtering enterprises this week was 27.97%, a week - on - week increase of 0.75 percentage points. It is expected that the operating rate may decline in the future due to weak demand [76]. - Substitute Prices: No specific analysis content provided, only pictures are shown. 3.6. Cost and Profit - Profit of Pig Breeding and Slaughtering: The weekly average profit of self - breeding and self - raising mode was 61.11 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 9.4 yuan/head. The weekly average loss of the mode of purchasing piglets increased to 53.71 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 25.16 yuan/head [89]. - Gross Profit of Slaughtering and Feed - to - Meat Ratio: No specific analysis content provided, only pictures are shown. - Pig - to - Grain Ratio: The current pig - to - grain ratio is 5.86, with little change. It is expected to be stable with a slight decrease next week [96].