甲醇周报：高基差下，甲醇期货或偏强震荡-20250622

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Recently, the domestic chemical coal market has shown a range - bound trend, and the cost of coal - to - methanol has stabilized. Due to the conflict between Iran and Israel, there are concerns about a reduction in methanol imports. With high and stable methanol - to - olefin operating rates, good demand, low port inventories, and high basis, and driven by a sharp rise in crude oil, methanol prices have rebounded significantly. However, after methanol prices reach a high level, there is an expectation of increased domestic production, and downstream profits have deteriorated, putting pressure on downstream demand. Therefore, methanol is likely to fluctuate strongly. The recommended strategy is to operate within a range and sell straddle options [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Supply and Demand Overview - Inventory: China's methanol sample production enterprise inventory is expected to continue to decline slightly. Port methanol inventory is expected to increase. It is necessary to pay attention to the unloading speed of foreign vessels [7]. - Supply: This week, China's methanol production and capacity utilization are expected to increase. The estimated arrival plan of imported methanol samples is 26.31 tons, and the domestic trade volume is estimated to be around 2.5 - 3.0 tons [7]. - Demand: With the ongoing maintenance of olefin plants in Zhongmei Mengda and the expected load reduction of olefin enterprises in East China, the operating rate of the olefin industry has continued to decline passively. The operating rates of dimethyl ether, chlorides, and acetic acid have increased, while the operating rate of formaldehyde has decreased [7]. - Industrial Chain Profits: The import profit is inverted at - 29 yuan/ton. The profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia has increased to 174 yuan/ton, while downstream profits are in large losses. The loss of MTO profit in East China has expanded to - 1934 yuan/ton [7]. - Coal Price: Recently, due to rising temperatures, coal prices have stabilized and are showing an upward trend. However, due to abundant supply of imported and domestic coal, high - level inventories, the weakening of thermal power demand due to the substitution effect of clean energy, and the slower - than - expected terminal inventory reduction speed, coal prices are still under pressure [7]. 3.2 Weekly View and Strategy - MA Unilateral Strategy: Short MA509. As of June 19, the price of MA509 was 2543 yuan/ton. The cost side has stabilized, inventory accumulation is less than expected, the conflict between Iran and Israel has worsened, and there are concerns about a reduction in imports. The recommended operation is to operate within a range [10]. - PP - 3MA Strategy: Short the PP - 3MA spread. As of June 19, the spread of the September contract was - 355 yuan/ton. The pressure of new PP production capacity is greater than that of methanol, and MTO profits are under pressure. The recommended operation is to short on rallies and wait and see for the time being [11]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Prices - Spot Price and Basis: As of June 19, the spot price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang was 2765 yuan/ton, and the basis relative to the September contract was 222 yuan/ton [15]. - Domestic Spreads and Freight: Relevant data on the spreads between Taicang and Inner Mongolia and between Inner Mongolia and Dongying, as well as freight rates, are presented in the form of charts [16]. - International Methanol and Natural Gas Prices: The international prices of methanol and natural gas are presented in the form of charts [20]. - Inter - contract Spreads: The spreads between different methanol contracts (9 - 1, 1 - 5, 5 - 9) are presented in the form of charts [22][24]. - Related Product Ratios: The ratios of methanol to urea and methanol to liquefied gas are presented in the form of charts [31]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Profits - Import Profit and Trade Gross Margin: The import profit is inverted, and the trade gross margin from Inner Mongolia to East China is presented in the form of charts [34]. - Coal - to - Methanol Production Profit: The production profits of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia and Shanxi are presented in the form of charts [39]. - Natural Gas and Coke Oven Gas - to - Methanol Production Profit: The production profits of natural gas - to - methanol in Chongqing and coke oven gas - to - methanol in Hebei are presented in the form of charts [42]. - Methanol - to - Olefin Profit: The production profits of methanol - to - olefin in East China and Shandong, as well as the disk MTO profit, are presented in the form of charts [46]. - Methanol Traditional Downstream Profits: The production profits of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, MTBE, and dimethyl ether are presented in the form of charts [52][55]. 3.5 Supply Side - Capacity Utilization and Production: Last week, China's methanol production was 1,997,846 tons, a week - on - week increase of 15,190 tons, and the plant capacity utilization was 88.65%, a week - on - week increase of 0.76% [64]. - International Operating Rate and Imports: As of June 18, 2025, the port inventory data shows that the weekly arrival volume of methanol in China was 25.7 tons. The import volume in May was 1.2943 million tons, and the import volume in June 2025 is expected to be around 1.3 - 1.35 million tons [69]. - New Methanol Production Capacity in 2025: In 2025, China's new methanol production capacity is about 8.6 million tons, with a capacity increase of about 8.4%. Most of the new plants are equipped with downstream facilities such as MTO, acetic acid, and BDO. Overseas, the new methanol production capacity is expected to be 5.05 million tons [71][73]. 3.6 Demand Side - Methanol Apparent Consumption: From January to April, the apparent consumption of methanol was 26.58 million tons, an increase of 4.5% [77]. - Methanol - to - Olefin Operating Rate and Production: Last week, the MTO operating rate was 88.97%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.54%. Due to planned maintenance in Zhongmei Mengda and a slight reduction in the load of enterprises in East China, the weekly average operating rate of the olefin industry has decreased [81]. - Traditional Downstream Operating Rates: The operating rates of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, MTBE, and dimethyl ether are presented in the form of charts [82][85]. - Downstream Purchasing Volume: The purchasing volumes of methanol - to - olefin manufacturers and traditional downstream manufacturers are presented in the form of charts [89]. - Production Enterprise Order Volume: As of June 18, 2025, the pending orders of sample enterprises were 273,800 tons, a decrease of 28,300 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 9.37% [96]. - New Downstream Production Capacity of Methanol: In 2024, there was only one new olefin downstream plant. In 2025, new methanol downstream production capacity is mainly concentrated in the olefin field, with an expected new olefin production capacity of 2.36 million tons and a theoretical new methanol demand of 6.6 million tons. For traditional downstream products, new production capacity is mainly in acetic acid, MTBE, etc., with a theoretical new methanol demand of 5.87 million tons [98]. 3.7 Inventory - Enterprise Inventory: As of June 18, 2025, the inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises was 367,400 tons, a decrease of 11,800 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 3.10% [102]. - Port Inventory: As of June 18, 2025, the inventory of China's methanol port samples was 586,400 tons, a decrease of 65,800 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 10.09%. The port inventory has decreased as expected [105]. - Port Floating Storage: The floating storage in East China and South China ports is presented in the form of charts [108].