产能约束需求稳健，铝价仍有上行潜力

1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Macro: In June, the Fed kept rates unchanged, pausing rate cuts for the fourth consecutive meeting. It is expected to cut rates twice this year, hinting at an increased risk of stagflation. Geopolitical risks, uncertain tariff policies, and delayed rate cuts are suppressing market risk appetite [5]. - Supply: In June, bauxite prices fluctuated. The overall cost of alumina did not change significantly. Although the supply of domestic ores has been tight recently and concerns about imported ore supplies remain, some alumina enterprises continue to increase their operating capacity, and new projects are still expected to be launched in the southern region in the third quarter. There is still pressure for an increase in domestic supply. Due to high profits, the operating rate of electrolytic aluminum smelters remains high, but the room for output growth is limited due to capacity constraints. In May 2025, China imported 350,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and its products, a year-on-year increase of 14.7%. Domestic aluminum smelting enterprises still face pressure from environmental protection supervision and electricity price adjustments, which may continue to promote the import of primary aluminum and intermediate products [5]. - Demand: The previous electricity reform policy stimulated the demand for photovoltaic installations. After entering June, the marginal demand for aluminum in the photovoltaic sector is under downward pressure. The real estate market in China has recovered due to a series of policy stimuli, and real estate demand has improved. The production schedules of white goods in July - August have decreased significantly month-on-month, increasing the downward pressure on terminal demand. However, the strong demand in the new energy industry largely offsets the impact of the decline in traditional industry demand [5]. - Inventory: Last week, both the LME market and domestic social inventories continued to decline, indicating that the market demand is not weak in the off - season [5]. - View: Entering June, bauxite prices fluctuated, and the overall cost of alumina did not change significantly. Although the supply of domestic ores has been tight recently and concerns about imported ore supplies remain, some alumina enterprises continue to increase their operating capacity, and new projects are still expected to be launched in the southern region in the third quarter. There is still pressure for an increase in domestic supply. Due to high profits, the operating rate of electrolytic aluminum smelters remains high, but the room for output growth is limited due to capacity constraints. In May 2025, China imported 350,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and its products, a year-on-year increase of 14.7%. Domestic aluminum smelting enterprises still face pressure from environmental protection supervision and electricity price adjustments, which may continue to promote the import of primary aluminum and intermediate products. On the demand side, the previous electricity reform policy stimulated the demand for photovoltaic installations. After entering June, the marginal demand for aluminum in the photovoltaic sector is under downward pressure. The real estate market in China has recovered due to a series of policy stimuli, and real estate demand has improved. The production schedules of white goods in July - August have decreased significantly month-on-month, increasing the downward pressure on terminal demand. However, the strong demand in the new energy industry largely offsets the impact of the decline in traditional industry demand. Currently, domestic social inventories are at a long - term low. Under the dual effects of capacity constraints and stable demand, aluminum prices still have upward potential in the medium term [5]. - Strategy: For Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy operations, it is recommended to mainly buy on dips. The reference support level for Shanghai Aluminum 2508 is 20,000 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - ly Viewpoints and Strategies - Macro factors such as Fed's rate - decision, geopolitical risks, and tariff policies affect market risk appetite [5]. - Supply side has capacity - related situations in alumina and electrolytic aluminum, along with import trends [5]. - Demand varies in different industries like photovoltaic, real estate, white goods, and new energy [5]. - Inventory shows a downward trend in both LME and domestic social inventories [5]. - The view is that aluminum prices have medium - term upward potential, and the strategy is to buy on dips [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - The report presents figures on domestic aluminum futures and spot prices, A00 aluminum ingot spot premiums and discounts, LME aluminum prices, and China's aluminum ingot import profits [9][10]. 3.3 Supply and Inventory - Bauxite: From January to May 2025, China's cumulative imports of bauxite and its concentrates were 85.18 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.1%. In May, imports were 17.51 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 29.4%. In 2024, China imported 158.767 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 12.3%. Guinea and Australia were the main sources. There are also many potential incremental projects in Guinea with a total expected increment of 62 million tons [20][22]. - Alumina: By May 2025, the weighted average full cost of China's alumina industry was 2,879.8 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 153.6 yuan/ton from the previous month. From January to May 2025, China's cumulative alumina production was 37.401 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.5%. In May, production was 7.488 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%. From January to May 2025, cumulative imports were 1.67 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 85.4%, and cumulative exports were 11.723 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 79.4% [28][33][34]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: As of the end of March 2025, China's built - in electrolytic aluminum capacity was 45.172 million tons, and the operating capacity reached 43.85 million tons. In May 2025, the average fully - taxed cost of China's electrolytic aluminum industry was 16,333 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.1%. The average profit was about 3,717 yuan/ton. In May 2025, China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production was 3.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. From January to May, the cumulative production was 18.59 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.0%. In May 2025, domestic primary aluminum imports were about 2.232 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.9% and a year - on - year increase of 41.4%. From January to May, the cumulative primary aluminum imports were about 10.575 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.7%. From January to May, the cumulative primary aluminum exports were about 0.67 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 215.6%. On June 20, 2025, the LME futures inventory was 342,900 tons. As of June 19, 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 450,000 tons [39][43][46][50][56][57]. 3.4 Primary Processing and Terminal Markets - Aluminum Alloy: From January to May 2025, China's cumulative aluminum alloy production was 7.405 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%. In May, production was 1.645 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.7% [65]. - Aluminum Products: In May 2025, China's aluminum product production was 5.762 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.4%. From January to May, the cumulative production was 26.831 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [72]. - Imports and Exports of Aluminum Products: From January to May 2025, China's cumulative imports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 16.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%, and exports were 24.3 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.1% [78]. - Downstream Demand: The report shows the global aluminum downstream demand structure, green demand forecasts, photovoltaic and wind power installation capacity forecasts, new energy vehicle sales forecasts, China's real estate market situation, new energy vehicle production, and power project investment, as well as China's automotive and photovoltaic aluminum consumption forecasts [83][87][92][97][102]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet and Industrial Chain Structure - Global Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It is expected that the global primary aluminum production in 2025 will be 73.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%. There are detailed production and demand data for different regions and years from 2021 to 2027E, showing supply - demand balances in different periods [105][106][107]. - Aluminum Industrial Chain Structure: No detailed text description provided, but presumably related to the overall industrial chain of aluminum from bauxite to downstream products.