Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The five major steel products continued to experience a slight reduction in inventory. Building materials' inventory reduction continued to slow down, while plates saw a slight reduction. Among them, the factory and social inventories of rebar and wire rod continued to decline slightly, the factory and social inventories of hot-rolled coil and cold-rolled coil turned to a slight reduction, and the factory and social inventories of medium and heavy plates both increased [7]. - The profit of blast furnace steel mills has recovered, with the operating rate and capacity utilization rate increasing month-on-month, and the daily average molten iron production increasing slightly. The operating rate of electric furnaces decreased due to losses. The output of the five major steel products increased month-on-month, with significant increases in the output of rebar and wire rod, and a slight month-on-month increase in the output of hot-rolled coil. Driven by profits, steel mills still lack the motivation to reduce production [7]. - The apparent demand of the five major steel products increased month-on-month. Among them, the decline in the apparent demand of rebar slowed down, and the apparent demand of hot-rolled coil increased significantly month-on-month. Currently, the impact of seasonal factors on demand still exists, and there is still marginal weakening pressure on demand [7]. - Recently, geopolitical issues have disrupted the international energy market, boosting coal prices and causing the prices of the black series to stop falling and fluctuate at low levels. In the industry, Tangshan recently received a production restriction notice, which will affect steel supply. However, since steel mills still have overall profits, the production reduction efforts of steel mills are limited, and the reduction in steel output is not obvious. As it enters the consumption off-season, the elasticity of terminal demand is insufficient, and the inventory reduction is gradually slowing down. Currently, there is no obvious contradiction between steel supply and demand, but consumption is marginally weakening, and the supply-demand contradiction is gradually accumulating. In the short term, the market will continue to fluctuate following macro news, but the demand outlook is expected to be weak, and steel prices will continue to fluctuate at low levels [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Week - Weekly Viewpoints and Strategies - Inventory: The five major steel products continued to experience a slight reduction in inventory, with different trends for different varieties [7]. - Supply: The profit of blast furnace steel mills recovered, and the output of the five major steel products increased month-on-month. Driven by profits, steel mills still lack the motivation to reduce production [7]. - Demand: The apparent demand of the five major steel products increased month-on-month, but seasonal factors still affected demand, and there was marginal weakening pressure [7]. - Viewpoint: Geopolitical issues affected the black series prices, and the production restriction notice in Tangshan had limited impact on steel supply reduction. Entering the consumption off-season, the inventory reduction slowed down, and steel prices continued to fluctuate at low levels [7]. - Strategy: Pay attention to the pressure around 3020 for the RB2510 contract and the repair of the basis between futures and spot [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - As of June 20, 2025, the RB2510 contract closed at 2992 yuan/ton, and the HC2510 contract closed at 3116 yuan/ton. The Shanghai rebar basis was 98 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai hot-rolled coil basis was 84 yuan/ton. The RB10 - 01 contract spread closed at 7 yuan/ton, and the HC10 - 01 contract spread closed at 9 yuan/ton. The Shanghai spot screw - coil spread was - 110 yuan/ton, and the main contract screw - coil spread was - 124 yuan/ton [16][34]. 3.3 Inventory - As of the week of June 20, the total inventory of the five major steel products was 1338.89 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 15.67 million tons. Among them, the rebar inventory was 551.07 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 7.01 million tons; the hot-rolled coil inventory was 340.17 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 5.24 million tons; the wire rod inventory was 94.09 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.64 million tons; the cold-rolled coil inventory was 172.81 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.41 million tons; and the medium and heavy plate inventory was 180.75 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.63 million tons [9]. 3.4 Supply - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.82%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.41 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate was 90.79%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.21 percentage points; the profitability rate was 59.31%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.87 percentage points; the daily average molten iron production was 242.18 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 0.57 million tons. The operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces was 70.93%, with a month-on-month decrease of 3.08 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate was 54.54%, with a month-on-month decrease of 2.19 percentage points; the scrap consumption was 252.27 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 1.71 million tons. The total output of the five major steel products was 868.51 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 9.66 million tons. Among them, the output of rebar and wire rod increased significantly, and the output of hot-rolled coil increased slightly month-on-month [9]. 3.5 Demand - The apparent demand of the five major steel products increased month-on-month. The apparent demand of rebar decreased at a slower rate, and the apparent demand of hot-rolled coil increased significantly month-on-month. The daily average trading volume of traders (MA5) was 9.42 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.47 million tons; the Shanghai wire rod procurement volume was 16,200 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 200 tons; the apparent demand of rebar was 219.19 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.78 million tons; the apparent demand of hot-rolled coil was 330.69 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 10.81 million tons; the apparent demand of wire rod was 88.7 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.81 million tons; the apparent demand of cold-rolled coil was 89.76 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.53 million tons; the apparent demand of medium and heavy plates was 155.84 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.29 million tons [7][9].
螺纹钢周报：驱动不足，钢价延续低位震荡-20250622
Hua Lian Qi Huo·2025-06-22 13:33