Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-06-22 14:41Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the metals and new materials industry, suggesting potential investment opportunities in this sector [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that gold prices are currently fluctuating at high levels, influenced by the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates and ongoing geopolitical tensions [2][20]. - The report emphasizes the long-term trend of central banks, particularly in China, increasing their gold reserves, which is expected to support gold prices in the future [20]. - The industrial metals sector is experiencing a tightening supply-demand balance, with specific recommendations for companies in copper and aluminum sectors due to their favorable market conditions [2][29][42]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.51%, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 1.16% [4]. - The non-ferrous metals index dropped by 3.57%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.12 percentage points [4]. - Year-to-date, the non-ferrous metals index has risen by 12.25%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 14.49 percentage points [7]. Price Changes - Industrial metals and precious metals saw varied price changes, with copper prices down by 0.12% and aluminum prices up by 1.86% [13]. - Gold prices on COMEX decreased by 1.98%, while silver prices fell by 1.15% [13]. - Lithium prices showed a decline, with battery-grade lithium carbonate down by 1.07% [13]. Precious Metals - The report notes that gold prices are influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and geopolitical developments [2][20]. - China's central bank has resumed increasing its gold reserves, which is expected to bolster market confidence in gold [20]. Industrial Metals - In the copper sector, the report indicates a slight increase in domestic social inventory, while exchange inventories have decreased [29]. - The report suggests that the copper supply is tightening, with recommendations for companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum [2][29]. - For aluminum, the report highlights a decrease in downstream processing enterprise operating rates, indicating a potential upward trend in aluminum prices [42]. Steel Industry - The report indicates that steel production has increased, while downstream demand has also risen, leading to stable prices for rebar [64]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring supply-side production adjustments and export demand changes in the steel sector [2].