通信行业周报2025年第25周：Marvell预测2028年AI基建超万亿美元，AI算力高景气度延续-20250622

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the communication industry [5][56]. Core Insights - Marvell predicts that North American CSP cloud capital expenditures (Capex) will exceed $1 trillion by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20% from an expected $595 billion in 2025 [2][13]. - The customized ASIC market is expected to grow significantly, from $6 billion in 2023 to $40.8 billion by 2028, reflecting a CAGR of 47% [2][14]. - Marvell's data center business is projected to capture a market share of 20% by 2028, with potential revenue reaching $94 billion, driven by high demand for customized chips [19][20]. Summary by Sections Industry News Tracking - Marvell's AI Day highlighted the rapid growth of Capex among North American CSPs, with a revised potential market size for data centers increasing to $94 billion, up from a previous estimate of $75 billion, indicating a 26% growth [13]. - The demand for AI ASICs is rising, with Marvell reporting 18 customer projects involving major players like Tesla and OpenAI [14][19]. Market Performance - The communication index rose by 1.58% this week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 0.45%, resulting in a relative return of +2.04% [3][45]. - Key sectors such as optical modules, IoT controllers, and optical fiber cables showed strong performance, with respective increases of 4.22%, 1.29%, and 1.20% [45][48]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on AI development on both cloud and edge sides, while also considering the high dividend value of major telecom operators [4][52]. - Recommended stocks include China Mobile, Zhongji Xuchuang, Tianfu Communication, and Guanghe Communication for the upcoming week [4][52].