银行业周度追踪2025年第24周：从银行股交易拥挤度看行情持续性-20250623

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [11] Core Insights - The Yangtze Bank Index has increased by 3.1% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 3.6% and the ChiNext Index by 4.8% [2][6] - Since May, institutional buying has accelerated, leading to a rotation-driven market rally, with stocks like Xiamen Bank and Su Nong Bank showing significant gains [6][18] - The average dividend yield of the five major state-owned banks' A-shares has decreased to 4.1%, with a spread of 246 basis points over the 10-year government bond yield, while H-shares have a higher average yield of 5.2% [20][24] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Yangtze Bank Index has shown a cumulative increase of 3.1% this week, with significant outperformance against major indices [2][6] - Institutional buying has led to a market rally, with stocks like Xiamen Bank leading the gains due to governance and performance improvement expectations [6][18] Trading Dynamics - The trading congestion indicators for bank stocks have not reached previous highs, indicating a less defensive market sentiment [7][27] - The turnover rate and trading volume of city commercial banks have increased, suggesting they are the main targets for institutional buying [27][29] - Rural commercial banks have also seen a significant increase in turnover, benefiting from a trading rally after a period of stagnation [27][29] Valuation and Yield Analysis - The current dividend yield of state-owned banks remains attractive compared to government bonds, with a notable spread [20][24] - The average discount rate of H-shares compared to A-shares for the five major state-owned banks is 20% [25] Future Outlook - The report suggests that the upward trend in bank stocks is likely to continue, as trading congestion has not yet reached previous peaks, indicating room for further growth [37]