格林大华期货早盘提示-20250623

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The global economic sector in the macro and financial area is rated as (slightly bullish) [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The global economic upward direction remains unchanged despite the potential significant increase in crude oil prices due to the escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East after the US raid on Iranian nuclear facilities [1] 3. Summary of Key Points Based on the Catalog Important Information - President Trump claimed that Iran's key uranium - enrichment facilities were "completely destroyed" and that the strike on Iranian nuclear facilities was a "huge military victory" [1] - Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps vowed to punish the US severely and stated that every US citizen and military personnel in the Middle East was a "legitimate target" [1] - Elon Musk warned that humanity is at the starting point of an "intelligent big - bang" and an "AI tsunami" is coming, predicting that AI super - intelligence may be achieved in 2025 or 2026 [1] - The Swiss National Bank cut its policy rate from 0.25% to 0%, the sixth consecutive cut, effective June 20 [1] - Japan's core inflation rate in May climbed to 3.7%, the highest since January 2023, increasing the pressure on the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates [1] - The CEO of X revealed that users will soon be able to invest and trade on the X platform, and the company is exploring launching X - branded credit or debit cards [1] - Citi analysis shows that if Iranian oil exports are interrupted for months, oil prices could reach $90 per barrel, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz may cause a sharp price increase but will be short - lived [1] Global Economic Logic - The US raid on Iranian nuclear facilities has significantly escalated Middle East geopolitical risks, and the upward momentum of crude oil prices may far exceed expectations [1] - A phased framework agreement between China and the US has stabilized global economic expectations. The US Markit manufacturing PMI in May was 52.0, indicating continued expansion [1] - The Swiss National Bank cut the interest rate by 25 basis points to 0. China is comprehensively rectifying involution - style competition [1] - The European Central Bank has cut interest rates 8 times, and Germany has expanded its military scale by 30%, promoting the recovery of European manufacturing prosperity [1] - If crude oil prices skyrocket, the global inflation transmission caused by the increase in oil prices will take time. The global economic upward trend remains unchanged [1]