金信期货日刊-20250623

1. Core View on Urea - On June 20, 2025, the urea price plummeted due to multiple factors [3] - The domestic urea production capacity has been continuously expanding, with an expected new capacity (including replacement) of 6.6 million tons/year in 2025. The total production capacity may exceed 75 million tons/year by the end of the year, with a stable daily output of over 200,000 tons and an operating rate of around 87% [4] - The demand is weak. In agriculture, during the summer top - dressing season, grass - roots procurement is cautious, and the procurement volume is only 70% of previous years. Industrial demand is also poor, with the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises dropping significantly to around 37% [4] - As of June 11, the national urea enterprise inventory reached 1.1771 million tons, an increase of 141,700 tons from the previous week, a growth rate of 13.7%. Urea exports are strictly controlled, and the port - gathering speed is slow, with an export expectation of less than 2 million tons this year, which is difficult to relieve the domestic inventory pressure [5] - The decline in raw material coal prices weakens the cost support, and the production costs of coal - based and gas - based enterprises have decreased simultaneously, giving enterprises more room to cut prices [5] 2. Technical Analysis of Different Futures 2.1 Stock Index Futures - Rumors that Trump will decide whether to attack Iran within two weeks have led to a decline in international oil prices. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate next week [8] 2.2 Gold - The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates in the meeting has reduced the expectation of an interest rate cut this year, causing an adjustment in gold prices. However, the general upward trend remains unchanged, and it is only a matter of time to reach a new high. A low - buying strategy is recommended [12][13] 2.3 Iron Ore - The supply has increased month - on - month, the pig iron output has weakened seasonally, and the ports have returned to inventory accumulation. The weak reality has increased the over - valuation risk of iron ore. Technically, pay attention to the important support below and view it with a fluctuating perspective [15][16] 2.4 Glass - The supply side has not experienced a major loss - induced cold repair situation, the factory inventory is still at a high level, the downstream deep - processing orders have weak restocking motivation, and the demand has not continued to increase significantly. It still depends on the effect of real - estate stimulus or the introduction of major policies. Technically, it rebounded slightly today, and a fluctuating view is adopted [19][20] 2.5 Soybean Oil - Due to the long - term expectation of the US biodiesel policy and the uncertain Middle East situation, the short - term trend of oils and fats may be fluctuating or slightly stronger. However, the current supply - demand situation is not tight, and it is in the period of medium - term seasonal production and inventory increase. When the price reaches the previous high pressure area of 8280 - 8300, take profit on long positions and take short positions with a light position [21]