光大证券晨会速递-20250623

Macro Analysis - In May, fiscal revenue and expenditure growth rates both declined compared to the previous month, with strong fiscal spending focused on "three guarantees" but a significant drop in infrastructure spending growth, indicating a need to monitor local investment momentum and willingness [2] - The U.S. Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates in June, awaiting the impact of tariffs on consumption and employment, while inflation effects have yet to materialize [3] Market Strategy - Public funds, particularly passive funds, are the main variables in the market, with expectations for increased investment in broad-based index ETFs, likely driving up indices such as CSI 300 and SSE 50 [4] Bond Market - The current stock of convertible bonds is primarily from private enterprises, with a high proportion of low-rated bonds, indicating an increase in credit risk events [5] - Commercial banks have significantly increased their holdings of government bonds while reducing holdings of interbank certificates and major credit products [6] Retail Industry - During the "618" sales period, e-commerce platforms achieved a cumulative sales of 855.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.2%, with instant retail sales reaching 29.6 billion yuan, up 18.7% [10] Renewable Energy - Continued optimism for wind power and solid-state battery sectors, with a focus on wind turbine manufacturers and the advancement of solid-state battery production lines [11] Coal Industry - With the summer electricity peak approaching, coal prices may have reached a temporary bottom due to supply contraction and seasonal demand increase, recommending companies with high long-term contracts like China Shenhua and China Coal Energy [12] Oil and Gas Industry - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly between Israel and Iran, are influencing the oil market, with a positive long-term outlook for major oil companies and oil service firms [13] Agriculture and Fisheries - The "618" sales report indicates a significant increase in pet consumption, with over 400 pet brands seeing sales growth exceeding 100% year-on-year [14] Company Research - The report on Chipbond Technology indicates a robust growth momentum in PCB equipment business despite a downward revision in profit forecasts for 2025-2026 due to weaker demand in the PCB industry [15]