宏观周报（6月第3周）：海外地缘政治冲突升温-20250623

Economic Overview - May economic data shows production remains resilient, but investment demand is weakening, and consumption is supported by policies[9] - Industrial added value in May grew by 5.8%, slightly above the expected 5.7% but down from 6.1% in the previous month[9] - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth is at 3.7%, below the expected 4% and previous 4%[9] - Retail sales in May increased by 6.4%, significantly above the expected 4.9% and previous 5.1%[9] Market Performance - Last week, the market experienced a decline with an average trading volume of 12,150 billion CNY, down by 1,566 billion CNY[8] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.51%, while the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 1.16%[8] - The bond market saw overall yields decline, with the 10-year government bond yield down by 0.3 basis points[8] Policy and Risks - The Lujiazui Forum's financial policies are mainly structural rather than quantitative, limiting market impact[9] - Central government plans to allocate 138 billion CNY in subsidies for consumption upgrades in Q3 and Q4[9] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran, pose new risks to the market, potentially affecting oil prices and increasing inflation concerns[9] Future Outlook - The overall GDP growth for Q2 is expected to maintain above 5%, but specific sectors may face challenges in demand elasticity[10] - Manufacturing investment is likely to slow down due to reduced support from equipment updates and increasing anti-involution measures[11] - Infrastructure investment is anticipated to play a more significant role in economic support as fiscal funds are expected to accelerate in Q3[11]