交银国际每日晨报-20250623

Group 1: Internet Industry - JD.com has launched the "Hotel PLUS Membership Program," allowing participating hotels to enjoy up to three years of zero commission, indicating JD's further expansion into local life services after its food delivery business reached a peak order volume of 25 million on June 1 [1] - The overlap in customer demographics between JD's food delivery and hotel services may significantly impact Ctrip, while Meituan and Tongcheng may be more affected in local consumption scenarios; however, Ctrip's supply chain barriers and Meituan's advantages in lower-tier markets are difficult to disrupt in the short term [1] - The difficulty in shaking up the OTA competitive landscape is higher than in the food delivery sector due to the low-frequency nature of travel consumption and the challenges in system integration and customer service capabilities [1] Group 2: Market Performance - The current price-to-earnings ratios for JD.com, Meituan, Ctrip, and Tongcheng are 7.5x, 17.9x, 15.9x, and 12.5x respectively, all at historical lows, highlighting the need to monitor the impact of competitive dynamics on short-term profits [2] - During the 2025 618 shopping festival, both Taobao and JD.com experienced accelerated growth in transaction volume and a double-digit increase in active users, driven by government subsidies and platform discounts [3] - The total funding support for consumer goods replacement programs reached 1,620 billion yuan in January and April, with an additional 1,380 billion yuan expected to be disbursed in the third and fourth quarters, which is anticipated to stabilize consumption in the second half of the year [3] Group 3: Economic Data - The manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the U.S. is expected to be released on June 23, with a previous reading of 52.00, while China's PMI for June is anticipated to be 49.50 [6] - The U.S. durable goods orders for May are expected to show a year-on-year decline of 6.30%, while the first quarter GDP growth rate is projected to be -0.20% compared to the previous 2.40% [6]