美联储连续第四次维持利率不变，美棉出口数据好转郑棉主力维持震荡格局，关注天气变化及政策动

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Zhengzhou cotton futures showed a narrow - range oscillation pattern this week, and the market will maintain an interval oscillation pattern in the short term. Attention should be paid to the impact of high - temperature weather in cotton - producing areas on new cotton output and changes in the macro - policy aspect [3][36] - The cotton textile industry is facing dual pressures of insufficient demand and high costs, with strong market wait - and - see sentiment [11][34] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part 1: Basic Data of Domestic and Foreign Cotton Markets - One - week Data Overview: As of June 20, the CRB commodity price index rose to 312.53 points, a 0.85% increase from June 13. The ICE cotton futures main contract in December decreased by 1.14 cents/pound, a 1.68% decline. The Zhengzhou cotton main contract 09 closed at 13,495 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from June 13, with a cumulative decrease of 0.8 million lots in positions to 5.25 million lots [2][10][35] - Demand - side Situation: The cotton yarn futures market showed a high - level oscillation pattern. The downstream orders were weak, and enterprises generally adopted a de - inventory strategy. The market operating rate remained low, and small and medium - sized textile enterprises faced great operating pressure [11][34] Part 2: Domestic Market Basic Situation - Textile Mainstream Raw Material Trends: On June 20, the raw material price center rose compared with June 13, while the yarn price center showed mixed changes, and the foreign yarn price remained unchanged. The RMB - denominated foreign yarn price increased [15][18][22] - Domestic Cotton Spot and Futures Prices vs. International Cotton Price Index (Tax - included): On June 20, the difference between the domestic cotton spot price index and the foreign cotton price under the sliding - scale duty expanded, while the difference between Zhengzhou cotton and the foreign cotton price under the sliding - scale duty narrowed [23] - Domestic and Foreign Cotton and Yarn Price Differences: On June 20, the domestic - foreign yarn price difference expanded, and the difference between Zhengzhou cotton and ICE cotton was 2,967 yuan/ton (without considering the trade premium) [24][27] Part 3: Zhengzhou Cotton Market Analysis - Zhengzhou Cotton Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts: As of June 20, the total of Zhengzhou cotton registered warehouse receipts and effective forecasts was 466,000 tons, a decrease from June 13 [29] - Zhengzhou Cotton Futures - Spot Price Difference Analysis: On June 20, the futures - spot price difference of Zhengzhou cotton expanded compared with June 13 [31] - Zhengzhou Cotton Price Analysis: Macroeconomically, the Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged, and China's economy continued to recover. In terms of supply, the cotton growth in Xinjiang was good, but attention should be paid to the impact of high - temperature weather. In terms of demand, it was in the off - season, and the industry faced dual pressures. Technically, the technical indicators were strong [32][33][38] Part 4: International Market Analysis - US Cotton Export Dynamics: From June 6 - 12, the net signing of US 2024/25 annual upland cotton increased by 38% compared with the previous week. The net signing of Pima cotton was - 431 tons. New - year contracts were also signed. As of June 10, the CFTC fund's net long position decreased by 5,999 lots compared with the previous week [41][43] - ICE Cotton Futures Analysis: On June 20, the ICE cotton futures main contract in December decreased by 1.14 cents/pound compared with June 13, and the technical indicators were weak [44] Part 5: Operation Suggestions - The Zhengzhou cotton price should be treated with an oscillatory view. Downstream textile enterprises can purchase raw materials in batches according to orders and consider selling out - of - the - money put options to reduce the cost of purchasing raw cotton [46]