宝城期货资讯早班车-20250623

Group 1: Macro Data Overview - GDP in Q1 2025 grew 5.4% year-on-year, same as the previous quarter and higher than the same period last year [1] - In May 2025, the Manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up from 49.0% in the previous month but the same as the same period last year [1] - The growth rate of social financing scale in May 2025 decreased compared to the previous month and the same period last year [1] - In May 2025, M0, M1, and M2 all showed year-on-year growth, with M1's growth rate significantly increasing [1] - In May 2025, CPI remained flat year-on-year, while PPI continued to decline [1] - In May 2025, fixed - asset investment growth slowed down, while retail sales of consumer goods continued to grow [1] Group 2: Commodity Investment Reference Comprehensive - China condemns the US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities and calls for a cease - fire and dialogue [2] - China will implement more proactive macro - policies and welcomes foreign investment [2] - The consumer goods trade - in policy will continue, with 1380 billion yuan of central funds to be issued in Q3 and Q4 [3] - The June LPR remained unchanged, in line with market expectations [3] - DCE will upgrade options exercise and hedging functions from June 24, 2025 [3] - The EU is trying to reach a trade agreement with the US to avoid tariff retaliation [4] Metals - India will impose a 5 - year anti - dumping duty on Chinese aluminum foil [5] - Platinum has risen over 36% this year, and demand for platinum jewelry has increased [5] - The gold jewelry processing industry faces challenges due to the decline in marriage and birth rates [5] - On June 19, copper, lead, tin, zinc, and aluminum inventories decreased, while nickel inventory increased [6] - As of June 20, the gold holdings of SPDR Gold Trust increased [7] Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Congo will extend the ban on cobalt exports for three months [8] Energy and Chemicals - China's PV industry association denies the "production - limit for price - maintenance" meeting [9] - In May 2025, total social electricity consumption increased by 4.4% year - on - year [9] - OPEC+ is gradually increasing oil production, and the current oil price increase does not require intervention [9] - The number of natural gas and oil rigs in the US decreased in the week ending June 20 [9] - Canadian LNG project produced its first batch of export - oriented LNG [10] - Goldman Sachs estimates that if the oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted, oil and gas prices will rise [11] Agricultural Products - Spring sowing of grain in China is progressing steadily, with the progress similar to last year [12] - Datagro raised its forecast for Brazil's 2024/25 soybean and corn production [12] - As of June 17, sugar speculators increased their net long positions [12] Group 3: Financial News Compilation Open Market - This week, 9603 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 1000 billion yuan of treasury cash deposits will mature [13] - On June 20, the central bank conducted 1612 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, resulting in a net withdrawal of 413 billion yuan [13] Key News - The US attacked Iranian nuclear facilities, and Iran responded [15] - China condemns the US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities and calls for a cease - fire [15] - The IAEA reported on the damage to Iranian nuclear facilities [16] - The June LPR remained unchanged [16] - China will implement more proactive macro - policies and expand opening - up [17] - The consumer goods trade - in policy will continue, with 1380 billion yuan of central funds to be issued later [18] - In the first five months of 2025, national general public budget expenditure increased, while revenue decreased slightly [18] - The cross - border payment system between the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong was launched on June 22 [18] - The NDRC recommended over 3200 projects to private capital, with a total investment of over 3 trillion yuan [18] - The CBIRC revised the management measures for money brokerage companies [18] - China's economy showed strong resilience in the first half of 2025, and GDP growth is expected to exceed 5% [19] - Beijing plans to issue 100 billion yuan of special bonds to invest in the government - guided fund [19] - Banks' issuance of science and technology innovation bonds is on the rise [20] - The dividend amount of public REITs has been increasing year - by - year [20] - Investor enthusiasm for bond funds has increased since June [20] - Public funds have increased their dividend efforts in June, with bond funds leading [21] - Bond funds' net value has generally increased in 2025 and is expected to continue to rise [21] - The Fed may cut interest rates as early as July [22] - Japan plans to significantly reduce the issuance of ultra - long - term government bonds [23] - There were several bond - related events, including credit rating upgrades and asset transfers [23] - Moody's and Fitch issued credit ratings for some companies [24] Bond Market Summary - China's bond market was generally bullish, with most bond yields falling [25] - On the exchange bond market, some bonds rose, and the real - estate bond and high - yield urban investment bond indices also increased [25] - The CSI Convertible Bond Index and the Wind Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index showed mixed performance [25] - Most money market interest rates increased [26] - Shibor short - term rates mostly rose [26] - Bank - to - bank repurchase rates showed different trends [27] - The weighted winning yields of 3 - year and 20 - year treasury bonds were announced [27] - European and US bond yields mostly fell [27][28] Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the central parity rate was also adjusted upwards [30] - The US dollar index fell slightly, and most non - US currencies showed mixed performance [30] Research Report Highlights - Huatai Securities believes that fiscal expansion momentum has slowed, and further fiscal policy support is needed [31] - CITIC Securities believes that the central bank's monetary policy is "domestic - oriented," and the exchange rate in the second half of the year depends on multiple factors [31] - Huatai Fixed Income believes that current price issues are complex, and the bond market has limited upward space [32] - Huatai Fixed Income believes that the stock market will continue to fluctuate narrowly, and investors should focus on high - quality oversold technology stocks [33] - Changjiang Fixed Income believes that bond yields may challenge previous lows but are difficult to break through [34] Today's Reminder - On June 23, 281 bonds will be listed, 180 bonds will be issued, 141 bonds will be paid, and 554 bonds will pay principal and interest [35] Group 4: Stock Market News - In June, the number of new IPO applications in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached a new high this year [36] - The new regulations on designated trading by the SSE will be implemented, which may intensify competition among brokers [36] - Last week, A - share indices fluctuated, and the ChiNext Index has greater rebound potential [37] - CITIC Securities believes that during the interim report season, the market risk appetite will decline, and North American AI hardware supply chain stocks are recommended [37] - CITIC Construction Investment believes that the Hong Kong stock market's new consumption and innovative drug sectors have adjusted, and the allocation direction is "dividends + new tracks" [37] - Securities firms are actively researching stablecoins, and the industry is expected to develop in a compliant manner [38] - Muyuan Co., Ltd. plans to issue H - shares in the fourth quarter [38]