纯碱、玻璃期货品种周报-20250623

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soda ash and glass futures markets are expected to continue their weak and volatile trends due to the high supply and low demand [6][10][27][31]. - For the soda ash 2509 contract, the expected trading range is 1150 - 1300, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [9][10]. - For the glass 2509 contract, the expected trading range is 950 - 1150, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [30][31]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash Futures 3.1.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - The soda ash futures are in a volatile phase. The market showed a weak and volatile trend last week, with small price fluctuations [6]. - On the supply side, the overall operating rate of the domestic soda ash industry on June 19 was 86.57%, remaining at a high level. Some plants were under maintenance or production reduction, and Zhongyan Kunshan has been shut down for maintenance since June 19, expected to last about 20 days [6]. - On the demand side, the downstream industry's purchasing willingness was weak, mainly adopting a low - price and just - in - time purchasing strategy. The current supply - demand pattern remains loose, and the demand is sluggish. It is expected that the soda ash futures price will maintain a weak and volatile trend, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [6]. 3.1.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The soda ash futures were weak and volatile last week. The supply side had a high operating rate and new production capacity, while the demand side mainly replenished inventory on a just - in - time basis. The market lacked driving forces, and the fundamentals were in surplus. It was expected that the price would continue to be weak and volatile. The expected trading range of soda ash 2509 was 1150 - 1300, and it was advisable to stay on the sidelines [9]. - This week's strategy recommendation: The soda ash futures market was weak and volatile last week, with small price fluctuations. The supply side operating rate remained high, and some plants were under maintenance or production reduction. The downstream purchasing willingness on the demand side was weak, mostly purchasing at low prices on a just - in - time basis. Due to the loose supply - demand situation and sluggish demand, it is expected that the soda ash futures price will continue to be weak and volatile. The expected trading range of soda ash 2509 is 1150 - 1300, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [10]. 3.1.3 Relevant Data - Data includes weekly operating rate, production, light and heavy inventory in China, daily basis, and weekly ammonia - soda production cost in North China [11][14][16]. - The multi - empty flow of soda ash futures is - 59.9%, indicating that the main force is relatively bearish; the capital energy is 7.0 ± 3, and the capital is basically stable; the multi - empty divergence is 90.1, indicating a high risk of market reversal [19]. 3.2 Glass Futures 3.2.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - The glass is in a volatile trend. The domestic 5mm float glass spot and futures markets were weak and volatile last week. Except for the firm quote of large - size glass in Shahe, other markets declined. The terminal demand was sluggish, and the downstream mainly made just - in - time purchases. The supply - side pressure was evident, and the manufacturers' promotional efforts had limited effects. Affected by the weather, the shipments in South and Southwest China slowed down. It is expected that the float glass price will continue to be weak and volatile, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [27]. 3.2.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The float glass market continued to be weak last week. The industry's production resumption was faster than cold repair, resulting in high production capacity. Due to the off - season in June and the weak real estate market, the deep - processing orders were few, and the demand expectation was poor. The glass factory's inventory increased during the holidays, and the中下游 purchasing was cautious, which suppressed the price. The futures fluctuated around 1000 yuan. The fundamentals were under pressure, and the contradiction between demand and inventory was unresolved. It was expected to continue to fluctuate this week. The expected trading range of glass 2509 was 950 - 1150, and it was advisable to stay on the sidelines [30]. - This week's strategy recommendation: The domestic 5mm float glass spot and futures markets were weak and volatile last week. Only the large - size glass in Shahe had a firm quote, while other markets declined. The terminal demand was sluggish, and the downstream mainly made just - in - time purchases. The supply - side pressure was evident, and the manufacturers' promotional efforts had limited effects. Affected by the weather, the shipments in South and Southwest China slowed down. It is expected that the price will continue to be weak and volatile. The expected trading range of glass 2509 is 950 - 1150, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [31]. 3.2.3 Relevant Data - Data includes weekly production, operating rate, production cost and gross profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel in China, daily basis, and weekly ending inventory [32][35][38]. - The multi - empty flow of glass futures is - 91.4%, indicating that the main force is bearish; the capital energy is 46.4, and the main capital has a slight inflow; the multi - empty divergence is 95.0, indicating a high risk of market reversal [43].