股指周报：涨跌分化，中小盘品种承压-20250623

Group 1: Market Performance - On June 20, the three major A-share indices closed down. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.07% to 3359.90 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.47% to 10005.03 points, and the ChiNext Index declined 0.84% to 2009.89 points. There were more falling sectors than rising ones [2]. - Last week, stock index futures closed down. The decline of small and medium - cap varieties was significantly greater than that of large - cap blue - chips. The CSI 300 futures (IF2506) fell 0.19%, the SSE 50 futures (IH2506) rose 0.38%, the CSI 500 futures (IC2506) dropped 1.42%, and the CSI 1000 futures (IM2506) declined 1.14% [2][3]. - Last week, treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The 30 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.71%, the 10 - year rose 0.21%, the 5 - year rose 0.12%, and the 2 - year rose 0.09% [4]. Group 2: Fundamental Analysis - From January to May, the national general public budget revenue was 9662.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. Tax revenue was 7915.6 billion yuan, down 1.6% year - on - year, and non - tax revenue was 1746.7 billion yuan, up 6.2% year - on - year. Central revenue decreased by 3%, while local revenue increased by 1.9%. The national general public budget expenditure was 11295.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.2% [10]. - The inter - connection of the fast payment systems between the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong was launched, and cross - border payment services were launched in Shenzhen on June 22. The initial participating institutions included major banks in the mainland and Hong Kong [10]. - Last week, the central bank conducted 960.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations. This week, there are 858.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase and 182 billion yuan of MLF maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 79.9 billion yuan. This week, 960.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchase and 100 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit will mature [11]. - On June 21, US President Trump claimed that the US had attacked three Iranian nuclear facilities. US B - 2 bombers were reported to be involved, and Iran had no response [15]. - On June 20, the 1 - year LPR was 3.0% and the 5 - year - plus LPR was 3.5%, remaining stable compared to the previous period [15]. - In the first five months of this year, the balance of household time deposits increased monthly, reaching 119.34 trillion yuan in May. The proportion of household time deposits reached a record high in May [15]. Group 3: Valuation Analysis - As of June 20, the PE of the CSI 300 Index was 12.83 times with a quantile of 60%, and the PB was 1.34 times; the PE of the SSE 50 Index was 11.08 times with a quantile of 78.04%, and the PB was 1.21 times; the PE of the CSI 1000 Index was 36.87 times with a quantile of 42.35%, and the PB was 2.04 times [16][17]. Group 4: Other Data - The equity - bond yield spread is the difference between the stock market yield and the treasury bond yield. There are two formulas for calculating it: one is based on the reciprocal of the price - earnings ratio, and the other is based on the dividend yield [23][24]. Group 5: Comprehensive Analysis - Last week, the A - share market continued its weak and volatile pattern. External pressure increased due to the Fed's hawkish stance and the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, while internal momentum was insufficient due to the policy vacuum and doubts about economic recovery [27]. - In the short term, the A - share index futures are difficult to break the oscillation pattern. The strategy should be "box threshold operation + strict stop - loss", and maintain a neutral position to wait for policy or geopolitical signals [27].