对二甲苯：地缘风险加剧，趋势走强，月差正套，PTA：地缘风险加剧，趋势走强，月差正套

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - PX: Cost continues to support the rise in PX valuation. The unilateral trend is expected to be strong, and the positive spread of the monthly difference should be held. PXN is strengthening [3]. - PTA: The unilateral price is expected to be strong. It is recommended to take profit on the positive spread of the monthly difference at high levels. Hold the strategy of going long on PX and short on PTA [3]. - MEG: The unilateral trend is strong, but the upside space may be limited. Hedge by going long on PX and short on MEG [4]. 3. Summary by Sections Fundamental Tracking - Daily Price Changes: On June 20, 2025, compared with the previous day, PX, PTA, and MEG decreased by 0.3%, 0.2%, and 0.8% respectively, while PF increased by 0.4%, and SC decreased by 0.8% [1]. - Monthly Difference Changes: The daily changes in the monthly differences of PX (9 - 1), PTA (9 - 1), and MEG (9 - 1) on June 20 were -40, -26, and -9 respectively, while PF(7 - 8) increased by 28, and PX - EB07 increased by 11 [1]. - Inter - Variety Spread Changes: The daily changes in the spreads of PTA09 - 0.65PX09, PTA09 - MEG09, etc. on June 20 showed various trends, such as an increase of 2 in PTA09 - 0.65PX09 and an increase of 28 in PTA09 - MEG09 [1]. - Basis and Inventory Changes: The PX basis increased by 18 on June 20, while the PTA basis decreased by 60. The PTA warehouse receipts decreased by 43,123, and the PX warehouse receipts decreased by 5 [1]. Market Overview - Geopolitical Factor: The Iranian parliament has approved the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but the highest security agency needs to make the final decision [3]. Market Views - PX: The core driver of the current market remains on the cost side. Due to the Middle - East geopolitical conflicts, multiple PX plants have shut down for maintenance, tightening the supply in the Middle - East and potentially affecting China's PX imports. Domestic PX operating rates are expected to decline further [3]. - PTA: It is still a cost - driven market. The risk of the war between the US and Iran escalating may lead to a rise in crude oil prices, providing strong cost support for PTA. Fundamentally, PTA has entered a pattern of inventory accumulation [4]. - MEG: The domestic supply has room for growth. Although the profit margins of some devices have been compressed, the overall load has increased to 70%. Overseas, multiple Iranian plants have shut down, with the impact on China's imports expected to be reflected in the far - month contracts [4]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PX is 2, while that of PTA and MEG is 1 [5].