工业硅：上方空间有限，逢高空配，多晶硅：继续空配

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for polysilicon is to continue underweighting [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including futures market data, basis, prices, profits, inventory, and raw material costs. It also mentions a US Senate proposal to cancel solar and wind energy tax credits by 2028 and extend incentives for other energy sources [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market Data: For industrial silicon, the Si2509 contract had a closing price of 7,390 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 80 yuan compared to T - 1. The PS2507 contract for polysilicon had a closing price of 31,700 yuan/ton, down 1,020 yuan from T - 1. Trading volumes and open interests also showed various changes [1] - Basis: Industrial silicon and polysilicon had different spot - to - futures spreads, with the industrial silicon spot showing different premiums or discounts against different benchmarks, and the polysilicon - N type re - feed material having a spot premium of +2800 yuan/ton against N - type re - feed [1] - Prices: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon products, as well as related downstream products in the photovoltaic industry, showed different degrees of decline over different time periods. For example, the price of polysilicon - N type re - feed material dropped from 37,500 yuan/ton a month ago to 34,500 yuan/ton [1] - Profits: Silicon factories and related enterprises in different industries such as polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy showed losses, and the profit margins continued to decline or remained at a low level [1] - Inventory: Industrial silicon inventories, including social, enterprise, and futures warehouse inventories, decreased to some extent, while the polysilicon factory inventory decreased slightly compared to a week ago but increased compared to a month ago [1] - Raw Material Costs: The prices of raw materials for industrial silicon production, such as silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc., also showed different degrees of decline [1] Macro and Industry News - The US Senate panel proposed to completely cancel solar and wind energy tax credits by 2028 and extend incentives for hydropower, nuclear, and geothermal energy to 2036. The proposal aims to cancel thousands of billions of dollars in clean - energy subsidies, considering them "unnecessary" [2][3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook for polysilicon [3]