Report Title - "Bean Meal Weekly Report" [1] Report Date - June 23, 2025 [3] Core Viewpoint - Last week, the CBOT July soybean contract fell 1.25 to close at 1067.25 cents per bushel, a decrease of 0.12%; the September bean meal contract rose 26 to close at 3067 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.85%; the South China bean meal spot price rose 40 to close at 2920 yuan per ton, an increase of 1.39%; the September rapeseed meal contract rose 5 to close at 2679 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.19%; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price rose 10 to close at 2570 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.39% [4][7] - The U.S. soybeans fluctuated at a high level during the week. The ongoing geopolitical conflict in the Middle East and the volatile and stronger oil prices provided support, and the impact of the U.S. biodiesel policy proposal was gradually digested. The weather in the U.S. soybean producing areas was generally good, providing no driving factors. The U.S. soybean crushing volume in May was lower than market expectations. Under multiple factors, the outer market fluctuated near the resistance level. The domestic oil mill crushing start - up rate continued to rise, increasing the bean meal supply. With no purchase of soybeans for the fourth quarter yet, the expected tight supply in the distant future supported the Dalian bean meal to fluctuate strongly [4][7] - The good weather in the U.S. soybean producing areas provides no driving factors. Concerns about Sino - U.S. tariffs remain, and the domestic soybean supply in the fourth quarter is expected to be tight. The risk of soybean shortage will also support the Brazilian soybean premium. The U.S. soybeans may fluctuate and adjust. The oil mill crushing start - up rate continues to rise, and the bean meal is in the process of inventory accumulation. However, the terminal demand is strong, and the feed enterprise pick - up volume is at a high level in the same period. With the domestic supply tending to be loose, the spot supply is also becoming loose, and the basis is generally weak. Currently, it is suppressed by factors such as weather and loose spot supply, and at the same time, it is supported by the expected tight supply in the distant future. The Dalian bean meal may fluctuate and adjust [4][12] Market Data | Contract | June 20 | June 13 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean | 1067.25 | 1068.50 | - 1.25 | - 0.12% | Cents per bushel | | CNF Import Price: Brazil | 467.00 | 454.00 | 13.00 | 2.86% | US dollars per ton | | CNF Import Price: US Gulf | 467.00 | 453.00 | 14.00 | 3.09% | US dollars per ton | | Brazilian Soybean Crushing Margin on the Disk | 59.99 | 133.72 | - 73.72 | - | Yuan per ton | | DCE Bean Meal | 3067.00 | 3041.00 | 26.00 | 0.85% | Yuan per ton | | CZCE Rapeseed Meal | 2679.00 | 2674.00 | 5.00 | 0.19% | Yuan per ton | | Bean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread | 388.00 | 367.00 | 21.00 | - | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: East China | 2920.00 | 2860.00 | 60.00 | 2.10% | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: South China | 2920.00 | 2880.00 | 40.00 | 1.39% | Yuan per ton | | Spot - Futures Spread: South China | - 147.00 | - 161.00 | 14.00 | - | Yuan per ton | [5] Market Analysis and Outlook U.S. Soybean Conditions - As of the week of June 15, 2025, the excellent - good rate of U.S. soybeans was 66%, lower than the market expectation of 68%, the previous week was 68%, and the same period last year was 70%. The planting progress was 93%, lower than the market expectation of 95%, the previous week was 90%, and the same period last year was 92%, with a five - year average of 94%. The emergence rate was 84%, the previous week was 75%, the same period last year was 80%, and the five - year average was 83%. As of the week of June 17, 2025, about 13% of the U.S. soybean planting areas were affected by drought, the previous week was 13%, and the same period last year was 2% [8] - As of the week of June 12, 2025, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 21.58 tons, in line with expectations (the previous market forecast was 17.5 - 45 tons), the previous week's revised value was 55.86 tons, and the initial value was 54.7 tons. The soybean export inspection volume to the Chinese mainland was 0 tons. So far in this crop year, the cumulative U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 4541 tons, compared with 4088 tons in the same period of the previous year [8] - As of the week of June 12, 2025, the net export sales of U.S. soybeans in the current year increased by 54 tons, the previous week was 6.1 tons. The cumulative export sales of U.S. soybeans in the 2024/2025 season was 4913 tons, with a sales progress of 97.6%, compared with 95.8% in the same period last year. The net export sales of U.S. soybeans in the 2025/2026 season in that week was 7.5 tons, and the cumulative sales volume in this season was 119.3 tons, compared with 111.8 tons in the same period last year [9] - The NOPA report showed that the U.S. soybean crushing volume in May was 192.829 million bushels, a 1.4% increase from April's 190.266 million bushels and a 5% increase from May 2024's 183.625 million bushels. As of May 31, the soybean oil inventory of NOPA member units dropped to 1.373 billion pounds, a 10.1% decrease from the end of April's 1.527 billion pounds and a 20.3% decrease from the same period last year's 1.724 billion pounds [9] - As of the week of June 13, 2025, the U.S. soybean crushing gross profit (spread between soybeans, soybean oil, and bean meal) was 1.87 US dollars per bushel, the previous week was 1.49 US dollars per bushel; the truck - board price of soybean oil in central Illinois was 47.36 cents per pound, the previous week was 46.23 cents per pound; the wholesale price of 48% bean meal in central Illinois was 288.25 US dollars per short - ton, the previous week was 290.85 US dollars per short - ton; the truck price of No. 1 yellow soybeans in central Illinois was 10.42 US dollars per bushel, the previous week was 10.73 US dollars per bushel [10] South American Soybean Conditions - The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (Anec) estimated that Brazil's soybean exports in June are expected to reach 14.37 million tons, previously expected to be 14.08 million tons [10] - The Buenos Aires Exchange reported that as of the week of June 18, 2025, the soybean harvesting progress in Argentina was 96.5%, the previous week was 93.2%, and the same period last year was 98% [10] Domestic Conditions - As of the week of June 13, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 5.996 million tons, a decrease of 106,900 tons from the previous week and an increase of 474,100 tons from the same period last year; the bean meal inventory was 410,000 tons, an increase of 27,500 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 584,900 tons from the same period last year; the unexecuted contracts were 4.6056 million tons, a decrease of 824,900 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 286,400 tons from the same period last year. The soybean inventory in national ports was 7.427 million tons, a decrease of 35,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 352,700 tons from the same period last year [11] - As of the week of June 20, 2025, the daily average weekly trading volume of national bean meal was 392,450 tons, including 87,990 tons of spot trading and 304,460 tons of forward trading. The previous week's daily average trading volume was 347,700 tons; the daily average weekly pick - up volume of bean meal was 208,980 tons, the previous week was 194,760 tons; the crushing volume of major oil mills was 2.3842 million tons, the previous week was 2.2587 million tons; the bean meal inventory days of feed enterprises was 7.74 days, the previous week was 6.83 days [11] Industry News 1. Secex data showed that Brazil exported 6,980,666.88 tons of soybeans in the first two weeks of June, with a daily average export volume of 698,066.69 tons, roughly the same as the daily average export volume of 697,980.60 tons in June last year. The total export volume in June last year was 13,959,612.09 tons [13] 2. According to foreign media reports, the Mato Grosso State Institute of Agricultural Economics (IMEA) announced that the soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso State from June 9 - 13 was 515.08 Brazilian reals per ton, compared with 558.66 Brazilian reals per ton in the previous week. The bean meal price in that state was 1619.60 Brazilian reals per ton, and the soybean oil price was 5670.10 Brazilian reals per ton [13] 3. According to foreign media reports, the French Ministry of Agriculture predicted that the winter barley and rapeseed production in France in 2025 will strongly rebound compared with last year's rainfall - affected production. In the first forecast of this year's harvest, the French Ministry of Agriculture said that the winter rapeseed production in France in 2025 will reach 4.2 million tons, a 9.4% increase from 2024 [13] 4. According to foreign news, industry analysts said that the U.S. soybean production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 118 million tons, slightly higher than the previous forecast. The U.S. Department of Agriculture said in the June supply - demand report that the U.S. soybean production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 118.1 million tons. A previous survey showed that analysts on average expected the U.S. soybean yield per acre in the 2025/26 season to be 52.5 bushels, and the production to be 4.34 billion bushels. It is expected that the U.S. soybean planting area this year will be 84 million acres, a 3.4% decrease from the previous year and 500,000 acres higher than the pre - estimated value announced in the U.S. Department of Agriculture's March planting intention report [14] 5. According to foreign news, industry analysts said that the soybean production in Argentina in the 2024/25 season is expected to be 48.8 million tons, slightly higher than the previous forecast. The weather forecast shows that it will be drier in the next few days in that country. Although the recent weather has been humid, the crop harvest season is almost over. The current pre - estimated values of soybean production in Argentina in the 2024/25 season by the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange and the Rosario Grain Exchange are 50.3 million tons and 48.5 million tons respectively [14] 6. According to foreign news, the European Vegetable Oil and Protein Meal Industry Federation (FEDIOL) said that in May, the rapeseed crushing volume in the 27 EU countries + the UK was 1.318 million tons, compared with 1.519 million tons in April; the soybean crushing volume was 1.332 million tons, compared with 1.328 million tons in April. The total oilseed crushing volume in Europe in May was 3.053 million tons, higher than 3.179 million tons in April. The crushing volume of enterprises participating in FEDIOL accounts for 80% of the total crushing volume of soybeans, sunflower seeds, and rapeseed in the 27 EU countries and the UK (including FEDIOL members and non - FEDIOL members) [15] 7. According to foreign media reports, analysts pointed out that the weather forecast shows that there will be rainfall in the Canadian prairie area, which will help relieve the drought. Currently, about 40% of the prairie area is experiencing drought. Statistics Canada is scheduled to release the sowing area report on June 27. Its March report showed that the rapeseed planting area was 21.6 million acres, a 1.7% decrease from the 2024/25 season [15] 8. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced that the predicted total cost of U.S. soybean production in 2025 is 639.15 US dollars per acre, and the predicted total cost in 2026 is 650.34 US dollars per acre [15] Related Charts The report includes multiple charts, such as the trend of U.S. soybean continuous contracts, Brazilian soybean CNF arrival prices, RMB spot exchange rate trends, regional crushing profits, bean meal main contract trends, and various inventory and trading volume - related charts [16 - 55]
豆粕周报：等待月底面积发布，连粕或震荡调整-20250623
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo·2025-06-23 02:12