LLDPE：反弹难持续，中期震荡市

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The rebound of LLDPE is difficult to sustain, and it will be in a mid - term oscillatory market. Factors such as cost increase, supply - demand imbalance, and weak demand on the consumer side all contribute to this situation. There are also potential changes in supply due to capacity switching [1][2]. 3. Key Points from Each Section 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of L2509 was 7415, with a daily decline of - 0.38%, trading volume of 414,225, and an increase of 6149 in positions [1]. - Basis and Spread: The 09 - contract basis was - 15, compared to - 82 the previous day; the 09 - 01 contract spread was 68, compared to 63 the previous day [1]. - Spot Prices: In the North China region, it was 7400 yuan/ton (7380 yuan/ton the previous day); in the East China region, it was 7450 yuan/ton; in the South China region, it was 7550 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Spot News The upward trend of LLDPE market prices slowed down, with price fluctuations between 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The linear futures opened high and closed low. Some prices of PetroChina and Sinopec were raised, but traders were more cautious, and downstream factories were hesitant to buy, resulting in poor transactions [1]. 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - Macro - factors: The intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran led to a significant rebound in crude oil prices, raising the cost of polyethylene. In 2024, Iran's polyethylene imports were 133.02 million tons, accounting for 9.6% of the total imports, and there may be import disruptions in the future. However, the high - price transactions in the polyethylene spot market weakened, and the basis continued to decline [2]. - Supply - demand Situation: In the 2025 09 - contract, the expected new domestic PE plant capacity is 2.05 million tons, with high supply pressure. Although there are many maintenance activities in June, it cannot change the high - production pattern. The demand side is weak, with the greenhouse film industry in the off - season and low orders. The demand for packaging films is average, and the operating rate decreased by - 0.7% compared to the previous period. Downstream factories' continuous restocking ability is insufficient [2]. - Future Considerations: Attention should be paid to the price difference between low - density and linear polyethylene, as well as the price difference between LDPE and EVA products. If full - density plants continue to switch to HDPE production, the supply pressure of LLDPE may be alleviated [2]. 3.4 Trend Intensity The LLDPE trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3][4].