生猪：短期震荡

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pig industry is "Short - term volatility" [1] 2. Core View - The current pig futures market has entered the expected trading stage. The continuous reserve - purchase expectation has driven the formation of policy - bottom sentiment, and the bulls' trading of the expectation of a bottom - out and rise in July has led to the strong operation of the 09 contract. However, the impact path of this policy on destocking has become more complex. In the medium - to - long - term, the pig inventory cycle has production characteristics and sustainability, and the structure maintains the expectation of reverse spreads. Short - term investors should pay attention to capital sentiment and set stop - loss and take - profit levels. The support level for the short - term LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - Spot Prices: The Henan spot price is 14,430 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price is 13,700 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the Guangdong spot price is 15,440 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton year - on - year) [3] - Futures Prices: The prices of pig2507, pig2509, and pig2511 are 13,335 yuan/ton (up 80 yuan/ton year - on - year), 13,895 yuan/ton (up 135 yuan/ton year - on - year), and 13,445 yuan/ton (up 105 yuan/ton year - on - year) respectively [3] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of pig2507 is 815 lots (down 740 lots from the previous day), with an open interest of 6,449 lots (down 287 lots from the previous day); the trading volume of pig2509 is 25,523 lots (up 530 lots), with an open interest of 76,202 lots (down 84 lots); the trading volume of pig2511 is 4,366 lots (up 1,046 lots), with an open interest of 40,179 lots (up 183 lots) [3] - Spreads: The basis of pig2507 is 1,095 yuan/ton (down 80 yuan/ton year - on - year), the basis of pig2509 is 535 yuan/ton (down 135 yuan/ton year - on - year), the basis of pig2511 is 985 yuan/ton (down 105 yuan/ton year - on - year), the 7 - 9 spread is - 560 yuan/ton (down 55 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the 9 - 11 spread is 450 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan/ton year - on - year) [3] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a range of [-2, 2]. A value of -2 indicates the most bearish view, and 2 indicates the most bullish view [4] 3.3 Market Logic - The current market is in the expected trading stage. Policy - bottom sentiment is formed due to the continuous reserve - purchase expectation, and the 09 contract is strongly driven by the bulls' expectation of a bottom - out and rise in July. The impact of the policy on destocking is complex, and factors such as weight reduction, spot - price reaction, and small - farmer hoarding need to be considered. In the medium - to - long - term, the pig inventory cycle has production characteristics and sustainability, and the structure maintains the expectation of reverse spreads. Short - term investors should pay attention to capital sentiment and set stop - loss and take - profit levels. The support level for the short - term LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [5]