烧碱：高利润背景下估值承压，但短期低位不宜追空

Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of caustic soda is 0, indicating a neutral view [5] Core View of the Report - Caustic soda is under short - term pressure with a weak trend, but the short - term further decline space is limited due to the large discount of the current main contract price to the spot. The strategy of shorting caustic soda profit will be the annual - level strategy. There is also room for rebound, and attention should be paid to downstream stocking. One can choose the right time for positive arbitrage [2][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The fundamental data of caustic soda shows that the cheapest deliverable in Shandong has a basis of 2256, the 09 - contract futures price is 810, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price is 2531, and the spot 32% caustic soda price is 275 [1] Spot News - After the purchase price of alumina, the main downstream of caustic soda, was lowered by 20 yuan to 780 yuan, the transaction prices of some enterprises continued to decline, while enterprises with low inventory maintained a wait - and - see attitude. The export price of high - concentration caustic soda declined, and major factories had poor new - order signing and sold at reduced prices [1] Market Condition Analysis - The caustic soda futures price continued to fall mainly because Shandong alumina enterprises lowered the purchase price again. When there is an expectation of spot price reduction, the stocking demand of downstream and traders slows down, intensifying the negative market feedback. The short - term spot of caustic soda is under pressure and the trend is weak. The pattern of high profit and high output in the second half of the year will affect caustic soda, and shorting the profit will be the main logic. However, due to the large discount, the short - term decline space is limited. There is also room for rebound due to short - term supply - demand mismatch of liquid chemicals [2] Focus in the Second Half of the Year - Attention should be paid to stocking in the alumina and export directions, and the stocking of non - aluminum sectors during the "Golden September and Silver October". When the national sample inventory is below 300,000 tons, caustic soda is prone to a shortage situation [3] Strategy - The future trend of caustic soda will show a large discount structure in futures, making it difficult for manufacturers to hedge. After making up the discount, it will continue to be under pressure. One can choose the right time for positive arbitrage, focusing on the downstream stocking rhythm [4]