棕榈油：产地近端基本面改善有限，反套表达，豆油：美国生柴政策及中东地缘情绪均偏好

Report Overview - The report focuses on the fundamentals and market trends of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures, providing price data, trading volume, and industry news [1][2]. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - For palm oil, the near - term fundamental improvement in the production areas is limited, and a reverse spread strategy is recommended [1]. - For soybean oil, the U.S. bio - diesel policy and Middle - East geopolitical sentiment are favorable [1]. Summary by Section 1. Fundamental Tracking Futures Prices - Palm oil主力: closed at 8,536 yuan/ton (day session) with a - 0.02% change, and 8,490 yuan/ton (night session) with a - 0.54% change [2]. - Soybean oil主力: closed at 8,156 yuan/ton (day session) with a 0.05% change, and 8,136 yuan/ton (night session) with a - 0.25% change [2]. - Rapeseed oil主力: closed at 9,726 yuan/ton (day session) with a 0.36% change, and 9,730 yuan/ton (night session) with a 0.04% change [2]. - Malaysian palm oil主力: closed at 4,115 ringgit/ton with a 0.27% change [2]. - CBOT soybean oil主力: closed at 55.04 cents/pound with a - 0.65% change [2]. Trading Volume and Open Interest - Palm oil主力: 601,493 lots traded (a decrease of 4,361 lots), and 503,940 lots in open interest (a decrease of 1,751 lots) [2]. - Soybean oil主力: 374,523 lots traded (a decrease of 88,727 lots), and 619,103 lots in open interest (an increase of 3,192 lots) [2]. - Rapeseed oil主力: 305,576 lots traded (a decrease of 8,857 lots), and 403,163 lots in open interest (an increase of 12,244 lots) [2]. Spot Prices - Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong): 8,820 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 20 yuan/ton [2]. - First - grade soybean oil (Guangdong): 8,410 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 50 yuan/ton [2]. - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi): 9,780 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 20 yuan/ton [2]. - Malaysian palm oil FOB (continuous contract): 1,005 dollars/ton, with no price change [2]. Basis - Palm oil (Guangdong): 284 yuan/ton [2]. - Soybean oil (Guangdong): 254 yuan/ton [2]. - Rapeseed oil (Guangxi): 54 yuan/ton [2]. Price Spreads - Rapeseed - palm oil futures主力 spread: 1,190 yuan/ton (previous day: 1,153 yuan/ton) [2]. - Soybean - palm oil futures主力 spread: - 380 yuan/ton (previous day: - 386 yuan/ton) [2]. - Palm oil 9 - 1 spread: 32 yuan/ton (previous day: 30 yuan/ton) [2]. - Soybean oil 9 - 1 spread: 74 yuan/ton (previous day: 76 yuan/ton) [2]. - Rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread: 110 yuan/ton (previous day: 115 yuan/ton) [2]. 2. Macro and Industry News Palm Oil Exports - ITS: Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1 - 20 were 847,695 tons, a 14.31% increase from the same period last month [3]. - AmSpec: Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1 - 20 were 798,813 tons, a 10.88% increase from the same period last month [5]. - SGS: Malaysia's estimated palm oil exports from June 1 - 20 were 759,881 tons, a 16.66% increase from the same period last month [6]. Soybean Oil Exports - Brazil's soybean oil exports in May reached 165,400 tons, a more than 66.4% increase from the previous month, and higher than the monthly average since the implementation of the B14 policy in March 2024 [6]. Argentina's Soybean Situation - Argentina's 2024/25 soybean planting area is estimated at 17.8 million hectares, a 0.6% increase from last month's estimate and a 7.2% increase from the previous year [6]. - Argentina's 2024/25 soybean production is estimated at 49.9 million tons, a 1.8% increase from last month's estimate and a 3.5% increase from the previous year [6]. - As of June 19, Argentina's 2024/25 soybean harvest rate was 97%, compared to 95% the previous week and 99% the same period last year [6]. Argentina's Exports - Argentina exported 1,224,096.07 tons of soybeans, 571,504.17 tons of soybean oil, and 2,339,966.64 tons of soybean meal in May [7]. Canadian Rapeseed Situation - As of the week ending June 18, the good - excellent rate of rapeseed crops in Saskatchewan was 52.4% [7]. - As of the week ending June 17, the good - excellent rate of rapeseed crops in Alberta was 44.7% [7]. - As of the week ending June 17, late - sown rapeseed in Manitoba had emerged, and the earliest - sown rapeseed was bolting and the first batch was flowering [7]. - As of the week ending June 15, Canada's rapeseed exports decreased by 17% to 131,400 tons from the previous week. From August 1, 2024, to June 15, 2025, Canada's rapeseed exports were 8.8139 million tons, a 54.2% increase from the same period last year. As of June 15, Canada's rapeseed commercial inventory was 117,290 tons [7]. 3. Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity: 1; Soybean oil trend intensity: 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [8].