地方债周报：关注地方债利差压缩机会-20250623

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The report focuses on the weekly situation of local government bonds, analyzing the primary and secondary market conditions, and suggesting to pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing spreads of local government bonds. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Situation - Net Financing: This week, the issuance of local government bonds reached 26.18 billion yuan, with an increase in net financing. The net financing was 12.43 billion yuan, including 2.72 billion yuan of new general bonds, 4.25 billion yuan of new special bonds, 6.31 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds, and 12.9 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds. Next week, the planned issuance is 58.56 billion yuan, with a net financing of 50.44 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 38 billion yuan [1][9][31]. - Issuance Term: The issuance proportion of 10 - year local government bonds was the highest this week (34%), and the proportion of 10 - year and above was 53%, showing a decline compared with last week. The issuance proportion of 10 - year local government bonds decreased significantly, with a week - on - week decline of about 13 percentage points [1][11]. - Debt - Resolution - Related Local Government Bonds: This week, special refinancing bonds worth 5.27 billion yuan were issued. As of now in 2025, 33 regions have disclosed plans to issue special bonds for replacing hidden debts, totaling 179.59 billion yuan. Among them, Jiangsu, Sichuan, Shandong, and Yunnan have 25.11 billion yuan, 11.48 billion yuan, 11.13 billion yuan, and 8.78 billion yuan respectively [2][14][15]. - Issuance Spread: The weighted average issuance spread of local government bonds this week was 8.9bp, narrowing compared with last week. The weighted average issuance spread of 30 - year local government bonds was the highest, reaching 21.2bp. Except for the 10 - year and 15 - year local government bonds, the spreads of other terms widened. Yunnan, Gansu, and Guangxi had relatively high weighted average issuance spreads, exceeding 11bp, while Shanghai, Heilongjiang, Beijing, and Hubei had relatively low spreads [1][24]. - Fund - Raising Direction: As of the end of this week, the main investment directions of new special bonds in 2025 were cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (32%), transportation infrastructure (21%), social undertakings (12%), and affordable housing projects (12%). The proportion of land reserve investment increased by 7.7% compared with 2024 [2][27]. - Issuance Plan: As of the end of this week, 36 regions have disclosed the local government bond issuance plan for the second quarter of 2025, with a projected total issuance of 2.48 trillion yuan. The planned issuance in June is 1.0076 trillion yuan. In addition, the planned issuance of new bonds and refinancing bonds in the second quarter is 1.3688 trillion yuan and 1.1115 trillion yuan respectively. 29 regions have disclosed the issuance plan for the third quarter of 2025, totaling 2.19 trillion yuan, with a planned issuance of 1.1487 trillion yuan in July [3][29]. 3.2 Secondary Market Situation - Secondary Spread: This week, the secondary spreads of 15 - year and 30 - year local government bonds were advantageous, with a significant narrowing. The secondary spreads of 15 - year and 30 - year local government bonds were relatively high, reaching 18.6bp and 17.5bp respectively. From the perspective of the historical quantile in the past three years, the historical quantile of the 30 - year local government bond secondary spread was relatively high, reaching 75%. Regionally, the secondary spreads of local government bonds over 20 - year in all types of regions were relatively high, and the 10 - 20 - year local government bonds in medium - level regions also had relatively higher secondary spreads [5][33]. - Trading Situation: This week, the trading volume and turnover rate of local government bonds both decreased. The turnover rates of local government bonds in Tianjin, Ningbo, and Shandong were relatively high. The trading volume of local government bonds this week reached 520.6 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 1.02%. Shandong and Sichuan had large trading volumes, reaching 48.7 billion yuan and 39.1 billion yuan respectively. The turnover rates in Tianjin, Ningbo, and Shandong were all higher than 1.5% [5][37].